Yemen’s Houthi rebels seize more key islands in southern Red Sea, tighten grip on shipping routes

The recent seizure of Greater Hanish and Lesser Hanish islands by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, located 160 kilometers north of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, marks a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict in Yemen and poses a direct threat to global maritime trade. To understand this development, we must first grasp the strategic importance of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This narrow waterway, separating the Arabian Peninsula from the Horn of Africa, connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and is a critical chokepoint for global oil and commercial shipping. Approximately 12% of global trade, including a substantial portion of Europe’s energy imports and Asia’s exports to Europe, passes through this strait. The Houthis, a Zaidi Shia rebel group that has been fighting Yemen’s internationally recognized government since 2014, have already disrupted shipping through missile and drone attacks, forcing many vessels to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, thereby increasing costs and delays. By deploying fighters on the Hanish islands, the Houthis are tightening their grip on the southern Red Sea, potentially enabling them to launch more precise attacks on ships and even blockade the strait. This move follows a pattern of Houthi aggression, including the 2018 ceasefire agreement over Hodeidah port, which they have violated, and their ongoing alliance with Iran, which provides them with advanced weaponry. The key stakeholders in this crisis include the Houthi rebels, backed by Iran; the Yemeni government, supported by a Saudi-led coalition; regional powers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which have strategic interests in securing shipping lanes; and global powers such as the United States, China, and European nations, all of whom rely on the free flow of trade. For India, the implications are profound. India is the world’s third-largest oil importer, and a significant portion of its crude oil from the Middle East and natural gas from Qatar transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Disruptions can spike energy prices, widen the current account deficit, and fuel inflation, impacting the common citizen. Moreover, India has a large diaspora in the Gulf region, and any conflict escalation could jeopardize their safety and remittances. India’s trade with Europe and Africa, worth billions of dollars, also depends on this route. Strategically, India has been expanding its naval presence in the Indian Ocean Region to protect its sea lanes of communication, as outlined in its Maritime Security Strategy. While there are no direct constitutional provisions related to foreign policy, Article 51 of the Indian Constitution directs the state to promote international peace and security, and India’s response is shaped by its Act East Policy and SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) doctrine. The broader themes here include the intersection of regional conflicts with global trade, the role of non-state actors in international relations, and the challenge to the rules-based maritime order. Looking ahead, the situation could escalate further, with the Houthis potentially attempting to close the strait entirely, prompting a stronger international naval response. India may need to deepen its defense cooperation with like-minded countries and consider alternative supply routes, such as the Chabahar port in Iran, to mitigate risks. This event underscores the need for a comprehensive maritime security framework and highlights the vulnerability of global supply chains to geopolitical shocks.