Eyes on Xi visit, ‘early harvest’ as Doval heads to Beijing

National Security Advisor Ajit Doval's visit to Beijing in early September 2025 marks a pivotal moment in India-China relations, coming just weeks before India hosts the BRICS Summit on September 12, 2025. This diplomatic engagement represents the highest-level official contact between the two Asian giants since the deadly Galwan Valley clash in June 2020, which claimed the lives of 20 Indian soldiers and an undisclosed number of Chinese personnel, fundamentally altering the bilateral trajectory. The visit's timing is strategically calibrated: it serves as a preparatory 'early harvest' mission to create conducive conditions for what would be Chinese President Xi Jinping's first visit to India in seven years — his last being the 2017 Xiamen BRICS Summit and the informal Wuhan Summit with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2018. Since then, relations have remained frozen across political, military, and economic domains, with India imposing restrictions on Chinese investments, banning hundreds of Chinese apps citing data security concerns under Section 69A of the Information Technology Act, 2000, and maintaining a firm stance that normalization of ties is contingent on restoration of peace and tranquility along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). The stakes are enormous for both nations. For India, hosting a successful BRICS Summit — now expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE — is a major foreign policy milestone that showcases its leadership of the Global South. A Xi visit would signal that Beijing respects India's diplomatic stature and is willing to engage substantively on border management. Constitutionally, the conduct of foreign affairs falls under the Union List (Entry 10, Seventh Schedule), with Article 253 empowering Parliament to implement international agreements. The NSA, operating under the National Security Council Secretariat established in 1998, plays a crucial coordinating role between the Ministry of External Affairs, Ministry of Defence, and intelligence agencies — making Doval's Beijing talks a whole-of-government effort. Key stakeholders include the Chinese Communist Party leadership, particularly the Central Military Commission chaired by Xi, India's Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), and the BRICS member states watching closely for signals of cohesion or fracture. The 'early harvest' concept suggests both sides seek quick wins: possibly resumed direct flights, limited de-escalation at friction points like Depsang and Demchok, or revival of the Special Representatives mechanism on the boundary question (last meeting in 2019). Economically, bilateral trade crossed $135 billion in 2023-24 but remains heavily skewed in China's favor — a concern for India's Atmanirbhar Bharat vision. Politically, any perceived concession on the border could invite domestic criticism, while failure to engage risks strategic isolation in a multipolar world. Broader themes at play include great power competition, the future of multilateralism, and India's balancing act between Quad (with US, Japan, Australia) and BRICS/SCO engagements. The visit also tests China's willingness to adhere to past agreements — the 1993 and 1996 border pacts, the 2005 Political Parameters Agreement — which Beijing has arguably violated through unilateral LAC changes. Future implications hinge on whether this engagement yields a structured dialogue mechanism or remains symbolic. If successful, it could pave the way for a Modi-Xi meeting on BRICS sidelines, revival of the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra, and gradual economic re-engagement. For aspirants, this episode encapsulates the complexity of India's neighbourhood diplomacy, the role of institutional frameworks like the NSA and CCS, and the interplay between bilateral disputes and multilateral platforms — all core to UPSC GS Paper II (International Relations) and GS Paper III (Security Challenges).