Yemen separatist chief defiant in first comments since disappearance

The ongoing conflict in Yemen, often dubbed the "forgotten war," represents a complex tapestry of internal grievances, regional power struggles, and international geopolitical interests. The recent defiance of Aidarous al-Zubaidi, chief of the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), following their brief capture of two Yemeni provinces in December and subsequent rollback by Saudi-led forces, underscores the multi-faceted nature of this protracted civil war.

**Background Context and What Happened:**

The roots of the current conflict trace back to the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings. Following the ousting of long-time President Ali Abdullah Saleh, his vice president, Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, took power. However, Hadi struggled to unite a deeply fractured nation. The Houthi movement, a Zaidi Shia group from northern Yemen, capitalized on this instability, seizing the capital Sana'a in September 2014 and forcing Hadi's government into exile. This Houthi takeover was perceived by Saudi Arabia as an Iranian proxy expansion on its southern border, leading to a Saudi-led military intervention in March 2015, aimed at restoring the internationally recognized Hadi government. The conflict quickly escalated, drawing in various internal factions and regional powers.

Within this broader war, the Southern Transitional Council (STC) emerged in 2017. It advocates for the secession of South Yemen, which was an independent state until its unification with North Yemen in 1990. The STC is militarily backed and financially supported by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a key member of the Saudi-led coalition. Paradoxically, while both Saudi Arabia and the UAE are allies against the Houthis, their objectives in Yemen diverge. The UAE's support for the STC reflects its broader strategic interest in controlling ports and securing influence along the vital Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. In December, the STC forces launched an offensive, capturing two provinces in the south. This move, however, was quickly met with a forceful response from Saudi Arabia, which deployed air strikes and ground forces allied with the Hadi government to push back the STC, restoring the status quo and highlighting the deep divisions within the anti-Houthi coalition itself.

**Key Stakeholders Involved:**

1. **Houthi Movement:** The primary insurgent group, controlling Sana'a and much of northern Yemen, backed by Iran.

2. **Internationally Recognized Government of Yemen:** Led by President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, supported by Saudi Arabia and the broader international community.

3. **Saudi Arabia:** Leads the military coalition, primarily concerned with countering Iranian influence and securing its southern border.

4. **United Arab Emirates (UAE):** A former key member of the Saudi coalition, now largely focused on its own strategic interests in southern Yemen, backing the STC.

5. **Southern Transitional Council (STC):** A separatist organization seeking an independent South Yemen, led by Aidarous al-Zubaidi, and heavily supported by the UAE.

6. **United Nations:** Engaged in continuous diplomatic efforts to broker a ceasefire and facilitate peace talks, while also leading humanitarian relief operations.

**Why This Matters for India:**

The Yemen conflict holds significant implications for India. Firstly, **energy security** is paramount; the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, bordering Yemen, is a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, including a substantial portion of India's crude oil imports. Instability in this region directly threatens India's energy supply lines. Secondly, **trade routes** through the Red Sea and Suez Canal would be severely impacted, affecting India's trade with Europe and Africa. Thirdly, India has a significant **diaspora** in the Gulf region, and regional instability could necessitate complex evacuation efforts, as seen during 'Operation Raahat' in 2015, where India successfully evacuated over 4,640 Indian nationals and nearly 2,000 foreign nationals from Yemen. Lastly, the conflict's potential to become a hotbed for **terrorism** and radicalization poses a direct security threat to India, given its historical vulnerability to extremist activities.

**Historical Context and Future Implications:**

The historical division between North and South Yemen, unified only in 1990, provides crucial context for the STC's separatist ambitions. The unification was never fully embraced by all southern factions, leading to a brief civil war in 1994. The current conflict has reignited these old grievances, making a comprehensive peace settlement even more challenging. The future implications are grim. The conflict has already created the world's worst humanitarian crisis, with millions facing starvation and disease. The internal divisions within the anti-Houthi coalition, exemplified by the STC-Saudi confrontation, complicate efforts to achieve a unified front against the Houthis or to establish a stable post-conflict government. The proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran further exacerbates regional tensions, with potential spillover effects across the Middle East. Any resolution would require intricate negotiations involving all stakeholders, addressing both the Houthi issue and the southern question, likely under robust UN mediation. The shifting alliances and the involvement of external powers suggest a prolonged period of instability.

**Related Constitutional Articles, Acts, or Policies:**

While there are no direct Indian constitutional articles pertaining to the Yemen conflict, India's foreign policy is guided by **Article 51** of the Constitution, which directs the state to "endeavour to promote international peace and security; maintain just and honourable relations between nations; foster respect for international law and treaty obligations; and encourage settlement of international disputes by arbitration." India's approach to Yemen, including its calls for a peaceful resolution, humanitarian aid, and adherence to UN Security Council resolutions, aligns with these principles. Furthermore, India's participation in international forums and its non-aligned stance reflect its commitment to a multilateral world order, as enshrined in its foreign policy doctrines.