Iran protests | The revolution will not be televised

The Islamic Republic of Iran has been a focal point of global attention due to widespread anti-government protests, which escalated from a seemingly minor shopkeepers' strike into one of the largest expressions of dissent the nation has witnessed in recent decades. This event is not merely an internal matter for Iran but carries significant geopolitical implications, particularly for countries like India.

**Background Context and What Happened:**

The current wave of protests, while triggered by specific events, is rooted in a long history of economic hardship, political repression, and social grievances. The 1979 Islamic Revolution overthrew the Shah's monarchy, establishing a theocratic republic under Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. While initially promising independence and justice, the regime gradually consolidated power, leading to a system where religious authority often overrides democratic institutions. Over the years, Iran has faced severe international sanctions, primarily due to its nuclear program, which have crippled its economy. High inflation, rampant unemployment (especially among youth), and widespread corruption have fueled public discontent. Previous major protests, such as the Green Movement in 2009, the 2017-18 economic protests, and the 2019 fuel price protests, demonstrated the simmering anger, often met with brutal state crackdowns.

These particular protests reportedly began as a shopkeepers' strike, likely indicative of deep-seated economic frustration. However, they quickly morphed into broader anti-government demonstrations, with participants voicing grievances ranging from economic mismanagement to demands for greater social and political freedoms. The state's response was swift and violent, with reports indicating thousands feared killed, a common tactic used by the Iranian regime to suppress dissent. Tehran, in turn, accused Western intelligence agencies of orchestrating and hijacking these protests, labeling them as 'domestic terror' – a narrative often employed by the regime to deflect internal criticism and justify its repressive actions.

**Key Stakeholders Involved:**

* **Iranian Government and State Apparatus:** This includes the Supreme Leader (Ayatollah Ali Khamenei), President Ebrahim Raisi, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and the Basij militia. Their primary interest is maintaining the current theocratic system and their hold on power, often through force and suppression of dissent.

* **The Protesters:** A diverse group encompassing shopkeepers, students, women, various ethnic minorities, and segments of the middle and working classes. Their motivations are varied, including economic relief, greater personal freedoms, an end to corruption, and, for some, a complete overhaul of the political system.

* **Western Countries (e.g., USA, EU):** Often critical of Iran's human rights record, its nuclear ambitions, and its regional proxy activities. While officially condemning the crackdown and expressing solidarity with protesters, Iran accuses them of active interference and regime change agendas.

* **India:** As a significant economic and strategic partner, India observes these developments closely. Its interest lies in regional stability, continued energy supplies, and the success of connectivity projects like Chabahar Port.

**Why This Matters for India:**

Iran is a crucial strategic partner for India, making its internal stability paramount. Firstly, **Energy Security** is a major concern. Although India has diversified its oil imports, Iran remains a potential alternative source, especially given global geopolitical shifts. Instability in Iran can disrupt global oil markets, impacting India's import bill and economic stability. Secondly, **Connectivity Projects** are vital. The Chabahar Port in Iran is India's gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asia, bypassing Pakistan and providing a crucial trade route. Any prolonged instability or change in regime could jeopardize India's investments and strategic access to these regions. Thirdly, India maintains a delicate **Geopolitical Balance** in the Middle East, engaging with both Iran and its regional rivals like Saudi Arabia and Israel. Instability in Iran could upset this balance, forcing India to navigate a more complex regional dynamic. Finally, India's foreign policy, as guided by principles like those enshrined in **Article 51 of the Constitution** (promoting international peace and security, maintaining just and honorable relations between nations, fostering respect for international law), dictates a careful, non-interventionist approach while protecting its national interests.

**Future Implications:**

The immediate future suggests continued internal repression by the Iranian regime to quell dissent. The international community's response will likely involve further sanctions and condemnations, but direct intervention remains highly unlikely. For India, the challenge will be to safeguard its strategic investments and interests, particularly Chabahar Port, while navigating the complex geopolitical landscape. The protests highlight the deep fissures within Iranian society and the regime's vulnerability, though a complete overthrow is not imminent. The long-term implications could include a more isolated Iran, greater regional tensions, and a continued struggle for human rights and democratic freedoms within the country. The accusation of Western intelligence involvement also points to an increasingly confrontational stance from Tehran towards the West, which could further complicate nuclear deal negotiations (JCPOA) and regional security.

**Related Constitutional Articles, Acts, or Policies:**

While there are no direct Indian constitutional articles on Iranian domestic affairs, India's approach is guided by its foreign policy principles. **Article 51 of the Indian Constitution**, part of the Directive Principles of State Policy, directs the state to promote international peace and security, maintain just and honourable relations between nations, foster respect for international law and treaty obligations, and encourage settlement of international disputes by arbitration. This article underpins India's policy of non-interference in internal affairs of other sovereign nations, while simultaneously pursuing its national interest through diplomatic engagement and strategic partnerships, such as those with Iran on energy and connectivity.