Excluding Awami League from upcoming election will not bring stability to Bangladesh, says party leader in Delhi

The statement by former Foreign Minister Hasan Mahmud in Delhi, asserting that excluding the Awami League from Bangladesh's upcoming elections would undermine stability, shines a critical light on the intricate political landscape of Bangladesh and its profound implications for India. This event is not merely a diplomatic utterance but a reflection of deep-seated historical ties, geopolitical realities, and shared strategic interests between the two nations.

To understand the gravity of Mahmud's statement, one must delve into the historical background of Bangladesh. India played a pivotal role in the 1971 Liberation War, which led to the creation of Bangladesh. This shared history fostered a special relationship, particularly with the Awami League, founded by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the 'Father of the Nation' and father of current Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. The Awami League has historically maintained a pro-India stance, advocating for secularism and a strong bilateral partnership. Conversely, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the primary opposition, often adopts a more nationalist rhetoric, which at times has been perceived as less aligned with India's interests. Bangladesh's political history has been marked by periods of military rule, democratic transitions, and intense rivalry between these two major parties, often leading to political instability and violence.

The current context revolves around upcoming general elections in Bangladesh. The Awami League, led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, has been in power for an extended period, leading to allegations of authoritarianism and suppression of opposition from the BNP and its allies. These opposition parties have been demanding a caretaker government for overseeing elections, a mechanism previously used but abolished by the Awami League government in 2011. The statement from Hasan Mahmud, an Awami League leader, acknowledges India's support for his party and suggests that excluding them would be detrimental to stability. It's important to clarify a potential misunderstanding from the quick summary: the Awami League is the ruling party in Bangladesh, not a banned entity. Any reference to it being 'banned' might refer to a specific context not fully captured or is a misinterpretation; the party is actively governing and preparing for elections.

Key stakeholders in this scenario include the **Awami League** itself, which seeks to retain power and maintain its close relationship with India. **India** is a crucial stakeholder, as a stable, friendly government in Bangladesh is vital for its 'Neighbourhood First' policy and broader geopolitical objectives. The **Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)** and other opposition parties are also major players, pushing for what they term free and fair elections, often alleging political repression. Finally, **Hasan Mahmud**, as a senior Awami League figure, serves as a messenger, articulating his party's perspective and indirectly seeking continued Indian support. International actors like the United States and China also watch Bangladesh's political developments closely, each with their own strategic interests.

This situation matters immensely for India. A stable Bangladesh is paramount for India's regional security and economic prosperity. Politically, a friendly government in Dhaka facilitates cooperation on critical issues like counter-terrorism, border management, and illegal immigration. Instability in Bangladesh could lead to an influx of refugees into India, posing significant social and economic challenges, particularly for states like West Bengal and Assam. Economically, Bangladesh is India's largest trade partner in South Asia, with bilateral trade crossing $16 billion in FY2022-23. India's 'Act East Policy' relies heavily on connectivity through Bangladesh for access to Northeast India and Southeast Asian markets. Projects like the BBIN (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal) Motor Vehicle Agreement and various rail and waterway links underscore this interdependence. The stability of Bangladesh directly impacts the success of these connectivity initiatives and India's broader regional integration agenda.

Historically, India's support for the Awami League dates back to the 1971 Liberation War. While relations have seen ups and downs, the Awami League's periods in power have generally coincided with stronger bilateral ties, marked by resolution of long-standing issues like the Land Boundary Agreement (ratified by India via the 100th Constitutional Amendment Act in 2015) and increased cooperation on energy and trade. The current political manoeuvring in Bangladesh, therefore, has deep roots in this historical alignment and the perceived strategic benefits for India.

The future implications are significant. Should the upcoming elections be perceived as illegitimate or lead to widespread unrest, it could destabilize Bangladesh, potentially impacting India's security and economic interests. There's also the broader geopolitical angle, where an unstable Bangladesh could become a playground for other regional and global powers, potentially undermining India's influence. India's foreign policy, guided by principles enshrined in Article 51 of its Constitution (promotion of international peace and security, maintenance of just and honourable relations between nations), seeks a stable and prosperous neighbourhood. While India adheres to principles of non-interference in internal affairs, its acknowledgement of support for the Awami League highlights a pragmatic approach to ensuring regional stability and safeguarding its strategic interests. The emphasis on stability through inclusive elections aligns with democratic values and is crucial for Bangladesh's long-term development and its partnership with India.