Expecting India's 2025-26 overall exports to touch USD 850 billion: Commerce Secretary

India's ambitious target of achieving USD 850 billion in overall exports by Fiscal Year (FY) 2025-26, as projected by the Commerce Secretary, underscores the nation's growing economic confidence and strategic shift towards becoming a global trade powerhouse. This projection builds upon a robust performance, with overall exports already reaching USD 634.26 billion in the first nine months of the current fiscal year, marking a commendable 4.33% increase over the previous year. A key takeaway from this announcement is the pivotal role of the services sector, which continues to be the primary engine driving this export growth.

Historically, India's trade trajectory has evolved significantly. From a largely agrarian and inward-looking economy post-independence, the economic liberalisation of 1991 marked a watershed moment, opening India to global trade and investment. Initially, merchandise exports, particularly in textiles, gems and jewellery, and agriculture, dominated. However, the late 1990s and early 2000s witnessed the meteoric rise of India's services sector, especially Information Technology (IT) and IT-enabled services (ITES). This growth transformed India into a global hub for software development and business process outsourcing. Government policies like 'Look East' (later 'Act East') and subsequent free trade agreements (FTAs) have consistently aimed at integrating India deeper into the global supply chain.

Several key stakeholders are instrumental in achieving this ambitious export target. The **Ministry of Commerce and Industry**, led by the Commerce Secretary, is at the forefront, formulating and implementing the Foreign Trade Policy (FTP) and negotiating international trade agreements. **Indian exporters**, both in the merchandise and services sectors, are the direct drivers, navigating global markets and enhancing competitiveness. Institutions like the **Reserve Bank of India (RBI)** manage foreign exchange reserves and influence monetary policy, which impacts export competitiveness. The **Export-Import Bank of India (EXIM Bank)** provides financial assistance to Indian exporters and importers. Industry associations like the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) and NASSCOM represent sector interests and provide crucial feedback to the government.

This export projection holds immense significance for India. Economically, a strong export performance directly contributes to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), as net exports are a component of aggregate demand. It leads to the accumulation of **foreign exchange reserves**, which provides stability to the rupee, helps finance essential imports, and strengthens India's macroeconomic fundamentals. Furthermore, export-oriented industries are significant **employment generators**, creating jobs across various skill levels, from manufacturing to high-tech services. From a balance of payments perspective, robust exports help narrow the trade deficit and improve the current account balance, reducing external vulnerabilities. Politically, a strong trade presence enhances India's global standing and diplomatic leverage, aligning with its aspirations to play a larger role on the international stage. Initiatives like 'Make in India' and 'Atmanirbhar Bharat' are designed to boost domestic manufacturing, which, in turn, is expected to fuel merchandise exports and reduce import dependence.

While specific constitutional articles directly governing export targets are not present, the **Seventh Schedule of the Constitution** clearly places 'Trade and commerce with foreign countries; import and export across customs frontiers; customs duties' under **Entry 41 of the Union List**. This empowers the Parliament and the Central Government to legislate and formulate policies regarding foreign trade. The **Foreign Trade (Development and Regulation) Act, 1992**, is the foundational legislation governing foreign trade in India. Policy frameworks like the **Foreign Trade Policy (FTP)**, with the latest iteration being FTP 2023, provide the operational guidelines, incentives, and strategic direction for exporters. The government's **Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes** across various sectors are a crucial policy intervention aimed at boosting domestic manufacturing capabilities and making Indian products globally competitive, thereby enhancing export potential.

Looking ahead, achieving the USD 850 billion target by FY 2025-26 will require sustained policy support, continuous infrastructure development, and a focus on ease of doing business. Future implications include India potentially solidifying its position as a reliable global manufacturing and services hub. The emphasis on diversifying export markets and products, coupled with leveraging digital trade and e-commerce, will be crucial. However, challenges such as global economic slowdowns, rising protectionism, geopolitical uncertainties, and domestic supply chain bottlenecks could pose hurdles. India's ability to navigate these complexities while capitalising on its demographic dividend and technological prowess will determine its success in achieving and even surpassing these ambitious export goals, propelling its journey towards a USD 5 trillion economy and beyond.