An emerging markets supercycle has just begun: Shuli Ren

The concept of an 'emerging markets supercycle' posits a prolonged period of above-trend growth for developing economies, driven by a confluence of global factors. Historically, supercycles are characterized by sustained high demand for commodities, leading to price surges, and significant capital inflows into emerging economies. The most recent supercycle, from the early 2000s to around 2014, was largely fueled by China's unprecedented industrialization and urbanization, which created immense demand for raw materials like iron ore, copper, and oil.

The current narrative, as highlighted by the article, suggests that a new supercycle is underway, distinct in its drivers but similar in its potential for transformative growth in emerging markets. This emerging supercycle is primarily propelled by a persistently weak US dollar, robust global economic growth, and the burgeoning demand for resources stemming from the Artificial Intelligence (AI) boom and the global energy transition. A weak US dollar typically makes dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for non-US buyers, boosting demand, and encourages capital to flow out of the US into higher-yielding emerging markets. Global growth, particularly in major economies, ensures sustained demand for goods and services, benefiting export-oriented emerging economies. The AI revolution, requiring vast amounts of energy and specific metals (like copper for data centers and advanced electronics), coupled with the broader push towards green energy, is creating a new wave of commodity demand.

Key stakeholders in this scenario include the emerging market economies themselves (such as India, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, and others mentioned like Venezuela and Saudi Arabia, which are opening up for investment), developed economies (whose demand patterns and monetary policies significantly influence global capital flows), international financial institutions (like the IMF and World Bank, which monitor global financial stability and offer policy advice), global investors (seeking higher returns), and multinational corporations (eyeing new markets and resource access). Central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve, play a pivotal role through their interest rate decisions and quantitative easing/tightening policies, which directly impact the dollar's strength and global liquidity.

For India, an emerging markets supercycle holds immense significance. Economically, it presents opportunities for increased Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI), fueling domestic growth and infrastructure development. India, as a major consumer and importer of commodities like crude oil and certain metals, could face inflationary pressures from rising commodity prices. However, it also stands to benefit from increased global demand for its services and manufactured goods, boosting exports. A stronger global economy generally translates to more remittances and a better environment for Indian companies to expand internationally. The 'Make in India' and 'Atmanirbhar Bharat' initiatives are strategically positioned to leverage this supercycle by boosting domestic manufacturing and reducing import dependence, while also aiming to become a global manufacturing hub. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), guided by the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934, would need to carefully manage monetary policy to balance growth with inflation control and currency stability amidst potentially volatile capital flows. The Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA), 1999, governs foreign exchange transactions and capital flows, making it crucial in managing the influx of foreign capital.

Historically, India has been a beneficiary of global economic booms, but also vulnerable to global downturns. This supercycle, driven by AI and green transition, offers a new dimension. India's large talent pool in IT and its growing renewable energy sector could see significant investment and growth. However, challenges such as managing the balance of payments, ensuring sustainable debt levels, and addressing income inequality remain critical policy considerations, often guided by the Directive Principles of State Policy (DPSP) under Part IV of the Indian Constitution, which advocate for social and economic justice.

Looking ahead, the future implications are multi-faceted. A sustained supercycle could lead to increased economic convergence between developed and developing nations, enhancing the geopolitical influence of emerging markets. However, it also carries risks: potential asset bubbles, increased debt burdens for some nations, and heightened volatility in commodity prices. For India, leveraging this period would require prudent fiscal management, continuous reforms to improve ease of doing business, and strategic investments in human capital and critical infrastructure. The government's policies, as outlined in the annual Union Budget and various industrial policies, will be crucial in harnessing these opportunities while mitigating risks, ensuring that the economic gains are inclusive and sustainable.