Trump has 'greenlit' sanctions bill aiming to punish Russia: Lindsey Graham

The announcement by US Senator Lindsey Graham regarding the 'greenlighting' of a sanctions bill targeting Russia marks a significant development in the ongoing geopolitical landscape, particularly concerning the economic fallout from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This legislation, empowering the U.S. administration to impose tariffs and secondary sanctions on countries purchasing Russian oil, gas, uranium, and other exports, has profound implications for global trade, energy security, and international relations, with a direct bearing on nations like India.

**Background Context and What Happened:** The genesis of these intensified sanctions lies in Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In response, the United States and its Western allies imposed a raft of economic sanctions aimed at crippling Russia's economy and limiting its ability to fund the war. These initial measures included freezing Russian central bank assets, restricting access to the SWIFT international payment system for some Russian banks, and targeting oligarchs. However, Russia, a major global energy producer, found alternative markets, predominantly in Asia, with countries like India and China significantly increasing their imports of discounted Russian crude oil. The current bill, championed by Senator Graham, represents an escalation of these efforts. By 'greenlighting,' it implies strong political backing and likely passage through relevant committees, paving the way for a potential vote. The critical aspect here is the introduction of *secondary sanctions*, which are penalties imposed by one country (the U.S.) on third-party countries or entities that engage in specific transactions with a primary target (Russia). This mechanism forces other nations to choose between trading with the sanctioned country or facing punitive measures from the sanctioning nation.

**Key Stakeholders Involved:** The primary stakeholders are multifaceted. The **United States**, as the architect and enforcer of these sanctions, aims to exert maximum economic pressure on Russia, align international policy with its strategic objectives, and punish what it views as aggression. **Russia** is the direct target, seeking to circumvent these measures by fostering new trade relationships and developing alternative financial mechanisms. **Countries that purchase Russian exports**, particularly major energy consumers like **India** and **China**, find themselves in a precarious position. They benefit from discounted Russian commodities but risk incurring secondary sanctions from the U.S. The **European Union**, while historically a major consumer of Russian energy, has largely diversified its energy sources in response to the conflict, though some members still face challenges. Global energy markets and international financial institutions are also significant stakeholders, as they bear the brunt of volatility and disruptions caused by such extensive sanctions.

**Why This Matters for India:** For India, the implications are substantial and complex. Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, India has significantly ramped up its purchase of Russian crude oil, becoming one of its largest buyers, taking advantage of discounted prices and diversifying its energy basket. This has been crucial for India's energy security and managing inflationary pressures. The imposition of secondary sanctions could disrupt this trade, forcing India to seek more expensive alternatives, potentially impacting its economic stability and contributing to inflation. Furthermore, India maintains a long-standing strategic partnership with Russia, particularly in defense and technology. Existing U.S. legislation like the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) has already posed dilemmas for India regarding its acquisition of the S-400 missile defense system from Russia. This new bill intensifies the geopolitical tightrope walk for India, which strives to maintain its strategic autonomy and multi-aligned foreign policy. India's approach is guided by its national interest, balancing its ties with the U.S. and the West with its historical and strategic relationship with Russia. The potential disruption to trade could also push India to further explore alternative payment mechanisms, such as rupee-rouble trade, to bypass dollar-denominated transactions.

**Historical Context and Future Implications:** The use of sanctions as a foreign policy tool by the U.S. has a long history, notably against Iran, Cuba, and North Korea, often with mixed results. The effectiveness of secondary sanctions in altering target behavior is a subject of ongoing debate, as they can also incentivize targeted countries to forge new alliances and develop parallel economic systems. Historically, India has resisted external pressure to align its foreign policy, upholding its principle of non-alignment (and later, strategic autonomy). The current scenario is a test of this principle. In the future, this bill could lead to further fragmentation of the global economy, with the emergence of distinct trading blocs. It might accelerate de-dollarization efforts by countries seeking to insulate themselves from U.S. financial leverage. For India, it necessitates a robust diplomatic strategy to navigate these pressures, reinforce its energy diversification efforts, and potentially accelerate indigenous defense production. The long-term implications include increased volatility in global energy prices, potential strains on multilateral institutions, and a reshaping of geopolitical alliances as nations respond to these economic pressures.

**Related Constitutional Articles, Acts, or Policies:** While the bill is a U.S. legislative act, its impact on India touches upon several aspects of governance and policy. India's foreign policy is not directly governed by specific constitutional articles regarding sanctions but is broadly guided by **Article 51** of the Indian Constitution, which mandates the state to 'endeavour to promote international peace and security, maintain just and honourable relations between nations, foster respect for international law and treaty obligations, and encourage settlement of international disputes by arbitration.' India's pursuit of strategic autonomy and its non-aligned stance are core tenets derived from these principles. Economically, India's response falls under the purview of the **Foreign Trade (Development and Regulation) Act, 1992**, which empowers the government to formulate and implement foreign trade policy. The Reserve Bank of India's framework for international trade settlement in Indian Rupee, introduced in July 2022, is a direct policy response to facilitate trade, including with sanctioned entities, and mitigate the impact of external financial pressures, showcasing India's proactive measures to safeguard its economic interests and maintain trade relations.