Political instability, constitutional change, and the military’s hold over Pakistan

Pakistan's political landscape has been characterized by a persistent struggle between civilian governments and its powerful military establishment since its inception in 1947. This recurring pattern of military dominance, weak civilian institutions, and deep social divisions forms the bedrock of understanding the country's trajectory, and the appointment of General Asim Munir as the Chief of Army Staff (COAS) in November 2022 serves as a stark reminder of this continuity rather than any significant shift.

**Background Context and Historical Trajectory:**

Pakistan emerged as an independent nation in 1947, carved out of British India. Unlike India, which adopted a robust democratic framework, Pakistan's nascent political institutions struggled to find their footing. The military, initially seen as a professional force, quickly began to fill the vacuum created by weak political leadership, internal squabbles, and the immense security challenges posed by its geography. The first military coup occurred in 1958, led by General Ayub Khan, abrogating the constitution and ushering in an era of direct military rule. Subsequent coups followed in 1969 (Yahya Khan), 1977 (Zia-ul-Haq), and 1999 (Pervez Musharraf), each time dissolving elected governments and imposing martial law. Even during periods of civilian rule, the military, often referred to as the 'establishment,' has exerted significant influence over key policy areas, particularly defense, foreign policy, and internal security through its intelligence agencies like the ISI. This historical pattern has prevented the consolidation of democratic norms and institutions, leading to a perpetual cycle of political instability.

**The Event: Asim Munir's Appointment and its Significance:**

General Asim Munir's appointment as COAS in November 2022 came at a time of heightened political turmoil, following the ouster of Prime Minister Imran Khan through a no-confidence motion in April 2022. The selection of the COAS is technically the prerogative of the Prime Minister, but it is widely understood to be a process heavily influenced by the outgoing COAS and the military establishment itself. Munir, who previously served as head of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and Military Intelligence, was seen as a safe choice, representing the institutional continuity desired by the military. His appointment signaled that despite the civilian government in power, the military's strategic control over the state apparatus remains undiminished. The article aptly notes this as a 'continuity rather than rupture' in the power dynamics, reinforcing the idea that the military remains the ultimate arbiter of power in Pakistan.

**Key Stakeholders Involved:**

1. **The Pakistan Army:** The most powerful institution, controlling vast economic interests, defense policy, and often dictating foreign policy. Its leadership, particularly the COAS, wields immense de facto power.

2. **Civilian Governments/Political Parties:** Historically weak, fragmented, and often reliant on military backing or susceptible to its pressure. Major parties like PML-N, PPP, and PTI have all, at various times, found themselves at odds with or subservient to the military.

3. **Judiciary:** While sometimes asserting independence, the judiciary has often validated military takeovers under the 'doctrine of necessity,' further weakening democratic norms.

4. **Intelligence Agencies (ISI):** An influential arm of the military, deeply involved in both external and internal affairs, including political management.

**Significance for India:**

Pakistan's instability and military's overarching influence have profound implications for India. A militarily dominant and internally unstable Pakistan poses a significant security challenge. This dynamic often translates into:

* **Border Security Concerns:** An unstable Pakistan can be a breeding ground for cross-border terrorism, directly impacting India's internal security (e.g., 26/11 Mumbai attacks, Pulwama attack).

* **Regional Geopolitics:** Pakistan's foreign policy, especially its close ties with China and its stance on Afghanistan, directly affects India's strategic interests and regional stability.

* **Counter-terrorism Efforts:** The military's ambiguous stance on certain terror groups operating from its soil complicates international and bilateral counter-terrorism efforts.

* **Economic Impact:** Instability can hinder regional trade, investment, and connectivity initiatives.

**Constitutional and Policy Contrast with India:**

In contrast to Pakistan, India's democratic framework, established by its Constitution, firmly vests civilian supremacy over the military. Article 53(2) of the Indian Constitution states that the President is the Supreme Commander of the Defence Forces, exercising this power in accordance with law. The elected government, accountable to Parliament, holds ultimate control over defense policy, appointments, and military operations. This robust constitutional and institutional setup has ensured that the Indian military has remained apolitical and subservient to civilian authority, a cornerstone of India's democratic success. This contrast highlights the critical importance of strong democratic institutions and civilian control for national stability and progress.

**Future Implications:**

General Munir's appointment suggests that the military's institutional power will likely continue to shape Pakistan's domestic and foreign policies. This implies continued challenges for democratic consolidation, economic stability (given Pakistan's perennial reliance on IMF bailouts), and potentially a continuation of the complex, often fraught, relationship with India. The military's dominant role also means that any significant shift in Pakistan's approach to issues like terrorism or regional disputes will require its implicit or explicit approval. For India, this means preparing for a continued state of strategic ambiguity and potential low-intensity conflict, while also seeking avenues for de-escalation where possible. The long-term trajectory of Pakistan's internal dynamics will remain a critical factor in South Asian stability.