PM Modi knew I wasn’t happy, says Trump; hints at new tariffs over Russian oil

The statement by former President Donald Trump on January 4, 2026, hinting at new tariffs on Russian oil and his dissatisfaction known to PM Modi, presents a fascinating hypothetical scenario with significant implications for global energy markets and international relations, particularly for India. While the date itself places this in a future political context, the substance of the remarks touches upon persistent geopolitical tensions and economic realities.

**Background Context and What Happened:**

Since Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and especially following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Western nations, led by the United States, have imposed extensive sanctions on Russia. These sanctions aim to cripple Russia's economy, particularly its lucrative energy sector, to diminish its capacity to fund military operations. Russia, a major global oil and gas producer, responded by seeking new markets, predominantly in Asia. India, historically a significant importer of Russian military hardware, emerged as a major buyer of discounted Russian crude oil post-2022, leveraging its strategic autonomy and the economic benefit of cheaper energy amidst rising global prices. This move, while beneficial for India's energy security and inflation control, has been viewed with varying degrees of concern by Western allies, particularly the US, which has sought a more unified front against Russia.

Donald Trump, during his previous presidency (2017-2021), championed an "America First" policy, characterized by protectionist trade measures, including the frequent use of tariffs as a tool of foreign policy and economic leverage. His administration imposed tariffs on a range of goods, notably from China, in an effort to renegotiate trade deals and protect American industries. Therefore, a hint from him about imposing new tariffs on Russian oil, potentially as a future president, aligns with his past approach to international economics and geopolitics.

**Key Stakeholders Involved:**

1. **United States (Donald Trump/Administration):** The primary driver of this potential policy. A Trump administration would likely be motivated by a desire to further isolate Russia, punish countries perceived as undermining US foreign policy objectives (like buying Russian oil), and potentially to reassert American economic dominance. The "unhappiness" with PM Modi could stem from India's continued robust trade relationship with Russia, despite US sanctions. This reflects a broader US foreign policy goal of aligning allies against perceived adversaries.

2. **Russia:** As the target of potential new tariffs, Russia would face renewed pressure on its primary revenue stream. This would force Russia to further diversify its export markets, potentially offering even deeper discounts to buyers like India or China, or facing a more significant economic downturn.

3. **India (PM Modi/Government):** India is a critical player, balancing its strategic partnership with the US with its long-standing ties to Russia and its domestic energy security needs. PM Modi's government has consistently articulated a foreign policy of strategic autonomy, refusing to be drawn into bloc politics and prioritizing national interests. The purchase of Russian oil, for India, is an economic decision driven by the need for affordable energy for its vast population and growing economy.

4. **Global Energy Markets:** New tariffs on Russian oil would reduce its availability in the global market, potentially leading to increased crude oil prices worldwide. This would impact all importing nations and could trigger inflationary pressures globally.

**Significance for India and Future Implications:**

For India, such a development carries substantial significance. Economically, if new US tariffs make Russian oil less accessible or significantly increase the cost for India due to secondary sanctions or pressure, India would be forced to seek alternative, potentially more expensive, sources. This could lead to a higher import bill, increased inflation, and a widening current account deficit, impacting India's economic stability and growth projections. India's current energy security strategy heavily relies on diversified sources and competitive pricing, and a disruption to its Russian oil imports would challenge this strategy.

Geopolitically, this scenario would test India's strategic autonomy. The US, under a potentially protectionist and assertive Trump administration, might exert significant diplomatic and economic pressure on India to align its energy procurement policies more closely with Western sanctions. This could strain the burgeoning US-India strategic partnership, particularly within forums like the Quad, where cooperation on regional security is paramount. India would face the delicate task of balancing its relationship with a key strategic partner (US) against its historically strong ties and energy interests with Russia.

Constitutionally, India's foreign policy is guided by principles enshrined in **Article 51** of the Constitution, which directs the state to promote international peace and security, maintain just and honorable relations between nations, foster respect for international law, and encourage settlement of international disputes by arbitration. India's engagement with Russia and its energy decisions are framed within this broader constitutional directive, prioritizing national interest and strategic autonomy. The **Foreign Trade (Development and Regulation) Act, 1992**, empowers the Indian government to formulate and implement import and export policies, including decisions on which countries to trade with, guided by these broader principles.

Looking ahead, this hypothetical situation underscores the volatility of global geopolitics and the challenges for emerging economies like India. It implies a potential return to a more transactional and tariff-driven international trade environment. India might need to further accelerate its efforts towards energy diversification, explore renewable energy sources more aggressively, and strengthen its diplomatic outreach to maintain balanced relations with all major powers, safeguarding its economic interests and strategic space. The potential for a renewed emphasis on tariffs suggests a less predictable international trade landscape, where economic policy is increasingly intertwined with geopolitical objectives, demanding agile and astute foreign and economic policy responses from India.