Parivar, party, and the quest for power

The recent reunion of cousins Uddhav Thackeray and Raj Thackeray, after two decades of a bitter political split, marks a significant shift in Maharashtra's regional political landscape. This development, centered around the enduring 'Marathi manoos' plank, holds profound implications not just for the upcoming municipal corporation elections in Maharashtra, particularly the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), but also for state and national politics.

To understand the gravity of this reunion, one must delve into the historical context of the Thackeray family and the Shiv Sena. The Shiv Sena was founded by Bal Thackeray in 1966, primarily to advocate for the rights and interests of the 'Marathi manoos' (Marathi people) in Mumbai, which was then experiencing an influx of migrants from other states. The party's ideology was rooted in aggressive Marathi nationalism, often resorting to strong-arm tactics to protect local employment and cultural identity. This 'Marathi manoos' plank, now 60 years old, has been the bedrock of the Shiv Sena's political existence and continues to resonate with a significant segment of the Maharashtrian electorate. The formation of Maharashtra itself in 1960, post the States Reorganisation Act of 1956 which facilitated the creation of linguistic states, provided the fertile ground for such identity-based movements.

Uddhav Thackeray, Bal Thackeray's son, and Raj Thackeray, Bal Thackeray's nephew, were once considered heirs to the Shiv Sena's legacy. However, ideological differences and a perceived struggle for control led to Raj Thackeray's dramatic exit from the Shiv Sena in 2006. He subsequently founded the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) in 2006, positioning it as a more assertive and uncompromised voice for Marathi pride. This split significantly altered Maharashtra's political dynamics, dividing the traditional Marathi vote bank and often leading to direct electoral contests between the two parties, much to the benefit of other political players.

The key stakeholders in this reunion are primarily Uddhav Thackeray, leading the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) faction, and Raj Thackeray, heading the MNS. Their combined strength on the 'Marathi manoos' platform could potentially consolidate a crucial vote bank that has been fragmented for years. Other stakeholders include the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which currently governs Maharashtra in alliance with the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena faction and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP faction. This reunion poses a direct challenge to the ruling alliance, especially in urban centers like Mumbai where the Shiv Sena (undivided) historically held sway over the BMC for decades. The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Indian National Congress, former allies of Uddhav Thackeray in the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government, will also closely watch these developments, as a strong Thackeray-Thackeray alliance could impact future coalition dynamics.

This reunion matters for India for several reasons. Firstly, it highlights the enduring power of identity politics and regionalism in India's diverse federal structure. While national parties often try to project a pan-India appeal, regional identities and their political manifestations remain potent electoral forces. Secondly, it showcases the fluid nature of political alliances and rivalries, especially among regional parties, often driven by electoral calculations and the quest for power. The recent splits within Shiv Sena and NCP, leading to the application of the Tenth Schedule (Anti-defection Law), underscore the fragility of party loyalties and the constant realignment of forces. Article 19 of the Indian Constitution, guaranteeing freedom of association, allows for the formation of political parties, but the internal dynamics and splits often test the spirit of democratic representation.

The future implications are multifaceted. A successful alliance between Uddhav and Raj Thackeray could significantly impact the upcoming BMC elections, potentially regaining control of a financially powerful municipal body. This, in turn, could provide a strong platform for the Thackeray cousins in the subsequent Maharashtra Assembly elections and even the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. It could also force a strategic rethink for the ruling BJP-led alliance, compelling them to recalibrate their approach to Marathi identity politics. Furthermore, this reunion might signal a broader trend of regional parties consolidating their base against national parties, especially in states where regional identity is a strong electoral determinant. It also exemplifies the complexities of dynastic politics, where family ties, even after years of estrangement, can be leveraged for political gain, reflecting the deeply embedded nature of such structures in Indian democracy.