Myanmar pro-military party dominates junta-run poll: official results

The news of the pro-military Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) dominating the junta-run poll in Myanmar, securing 87 out of 96 lower house seats, is a critical development that underscores the deepening political crisis in India's eastern neighbour. This outcome is not merely an electoral result but a calculated move by the Tatmadaw (Myanmar's armed forces) to legitimize its grip on power, which it seized through a coup d'état on February 1, 2021.

To understand the gravity of this situation, one must delve into the background context. Myanmar has a long history of military rule, with the Tatmadaw dominating politics for nearly five decades following a 1962 coup. A brief period of democratic transition began in 2011, culminating in the historic 2015 general elections where Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) won a landslide victory. This democratic experiment continued with another NLD triumph in the November 2020 elections, securing an even larger majority. However, the military alleged widespread fraud in these elections, a claim largely unsubstantiated by independent observers, and used it as a pretext to launch the 2021 coup, arresting NLD leaders and effectively nullifying the democratic mandate.

What happened in the recent 'poll' is a continuation of this military strategy. The Union Election Commission (UEC), now reconstituted and controlled by the junta, announced these partial results from what is widely considered a sham election. The USDP, essentially the political wing of the Tatmadaw, was expected to perform well in an environment where the main opposition NLD was outlawed, its leaders imprisoned or in exile, and widespread violence and civil disobedience movements were suppressed. This election lacks legitimacy in the eyes of the international community and a significant portion of the Myanmar populace.

Key stakeholders in this complex situation include the **Tatmadaw (Junta)**, which is the primary actor, seeking to consolidate its power and project an image of legitimacy through these controlled elections. The **Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP)** is their political vehicle. On the other side are the **National Unity Government (NUG)**, formed by ousted NLD lawmakers and ethnic minority representatives, and various **People's Defence Forces (PDFs)**, which are armed resistance groups challenging the junta's rule. Regionally, the **Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)** has attempted mediation through its 'Five-Point Consensus' but has largely failed to influence the junta. Global powers like the **United States, United Kingdom, and the European Union** have imposed sanctions, while **China and Russia** have generally maintained relations with the junta, complicating international efforts.

For India, the developments in Myanmar carry significant implications. India shares a 1,600 km long, porous land border with Myanmar, making it a critical neighbour. The ongoing instability directly impacts India's **internal security**, particularly in its northeastern states, due to concerns over illegal migration, drug trafficking (Golden Triangle), arms smuggling, and cross-border insurgency. The influx of refugees from Myanmar, especially the Chin community, into states like Mizoram, has already created humanitarian challenges. Strategically, Myanmar is a cornerstone of India's **'Act East Policy'**, serving as a crucial land bridge for connectivity projects aimed at enhancing trade and strategic ties with Southeast Asia. Projects like the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project and the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway are vital for India's regional integration. The entrenchment of military rule and continued instability threaten the viability and progress of these initiatives. Furthermore, Myanmar's geopolitical significance is heightened by **China's growing influence** in the country, which poses a strategic challenge for India in its extended neighbourhood. India finds itself in a delicate balancing act: advocating for democracy and stability while safeguarding its strategic and economic interests.

Historically, India has navigated a complex relationship with Myanmar, often balancing its democratic values with strategic imperatives. During earlier periods of military rule in Myanmar, India initially supported the pro-democracy movement but later shifted to a more pragmatic engagement driven by security concerns and China's rising influence. Post-2021 coup, India has called for the restoration of democracy but has refrained from strong condemnations or sanctions, prioritizing border stability and strategic projects. While no specific Indian constitutional articles directly govern foreign elections, India's foreign policy, guided by principles of **Panchsheel** and the pursuit of national interest, shapes its diplomatic responses. The Preamble of the Indian Constitution, with its emphasis on liberty, equality, and fraternity, reflects the democratic values that India ideally upholds internationally, contrasting sharply with the suppression of democracy in Myanmar.

Looking ahead, the future implications are bleak for Myanmar's democratic aspirations. The junta's dominance in these polls signals a likely **further entrenchment of military rule**, making a return to genuine democracy a distant prospect. This will likely lead to **continued civil war and intensified resistance** from the NUG and PDFs, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis. Regionally, it complicates ASEAN's efforts and could lead to increased regional instability. For India, it necessitates a continued, careful diplomatic approach, balancing its strategic interests in connectivity and security with its commitment to democratic values, while potentially facing increasing pressure from international bodies and domestic voices to take a stronger stance. The challenge for India will be to protect its interests without legitimizing the junta's actions or alienating the Myanmar people.