UAE says it has pulled troops out of Yemen as tensions rise in south

The announcement by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) regarding the withdrawal of its troops from Yemen marks a pivotal moment in the protracted Yemeni conflict, a complex humanitarian crisis and a theatre for regional proxy rivalries. To truly grasp its significance, we must delve into the background, key players, and broader implications.

**Background Context: The Genesis of the Yemeni Conflict**

The Yemeni civil war, which escalated dramatically in 2014-2015, is rooted in a confluence of factors: political instability following the Arab Spring, a weak central government, tribal divisions, and the resurgence of the Houthi movement. The Houthis, a Zaydi Shia group from northern Yemen, capitalized on popular discontent and allied with forces loyal to former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, seizing the capital Sana'a in September 2014 and overthrowing the internationally recognized government of President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi. This prompted a Saudi Arabia-led coalition, which included the UAE, to intervene in March 2015 with the stated goal of restoring Hadi's government and countering Iranian influence, which they alleged backed the Houthis. The conflict quickly devolved into a devastating humanitarian catastrophe, with millions displaced and facing famine.

**What Happened: UAE's Strategic Shift**

The UAE, a prominent member of the Saudi-led coalition, initially played a significant role, particularly in southern Yemen. Its focus was largely on counter-terrorism operations against Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS, and supporting local forces like the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a separatist movement advocating for an independent South Yemen. The STC, heavily armed and trained by the UAE, became a powerful actor, often clashing with forces loyal to the Hadi government, despite both nominally being on the same side against the Houthis. The UAE's announcement to pull out its troops, made amidst rising tensions in the south between the STC and Hadi's forces, underscores a strategic reassessment. The UAE Foreign Ministry's statement emphasizing “restraint, coordination, and a deliberate commitment to de-escalation” suggests a desire to extricate itself from the direct military quagmire and perhaps focus on diplomatic or economic levers, or to consolidate its gains without direct military engagement.

**Key Stakeholders and Their Interests**

* **United Arab Emirates (UAE):** Initially sought to counter Iranian influence and secure its strategic interests in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. Its withdrawal reflects a potential shift towards protecting its economic and security interests more directly, possibly seeing diminishing returns from prolonged military involvement. It also seeks to avoid being drawn into inter-coalition conflicts in the south.

* **Saudi Arabia:** The primary leader of the coalition, it now faces increased pressure and potential isolation. Its objectives remain restoring the Hadi government and curbing Iranian influence. The UAE's move could complicate Saudi efforts and potentially expose its southern flank.

* **Southern Transitional Council (STC):** A powerful UAE-backed separatist group, it seeks independence for South Yemen. The UAE's withdrawal could either empower the STC to pursue its goals more aggressively or leave it vulnerable without direct Emirati military support.

* **Yemen's Internationally Recognized Government (Hadi Government):** Weakened and largely exiled, it struggles for legitimacy and control, often clashing with the STC. The UAE's move further complicates its position.

* **Houthi Rebels:** The main adversaries, they control much of northern Yemen, including Sana'a. The UAE's withdrawal could be seen as a victory for them, potentially shifting the military balance in their favour or creating new opportunities for negotiation.

* **Iran:** Accused by Saudi Arabia and the UAE of backing the Houthis, Iran views the conflict as a proxy battle against its regional rivals. A prolonged conflict benefits Iran by bogging down its adversaries.

**Significance for India**

India has significant stakes in the stability of the Middle East. The region is India's primary source of crude oil and natural gas, making energy security a critical concern. Any instability, like that in Yemen, can lead to volatile oil prices, directly impacting India's economy. Furthermore, the Gulf region hosts a large Indian diaspora, estimated at over 8 million, whose safety and remittances are vital. The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, at the entrance to the Red Sea, is a crucial global shipping lane for trade, including India's. Disruptions here directly affect India's maritime trade. India's 'Look West' policy emphasizes strong economic and strategic ties with Gulf nations. While India maintains a policy of non-interference in internal affairs of other nations, as enshrined in its foreign policy principles, it advocates for peaceful resolution of disputes and humanitarian aid. The instability in Yemen also raises concerns about the proliferation of terrorism, which India actively combats through international cooperation.

**Historical Context and Future Implications**

The Yemen conflict is a modern manifestation of regional power struggles, echoing historical proxy battles. The UAE's move could be seen as a strategic re-calibration, similar to how other external powers adjust their involvement in protracted conflicts. In the short term, this withdrawal could intensify the conflict in southern Yemen between the STC and the Hadi government, or it could open a window for renewed peace talks, albeit with a new power dynamic. It puts more onus on Saudi Arabia to find a resolution. For India, the future implications involve closely monitoring regional stability, diversifying energy sources, ensuring the safety of its diaspora, and continuing its diplomatic engagement for a peaceful resolution, perhaps under the auspices of the United Nations (UN) Security Council, of which India has been a non-permanent member multiple times and adheres to its resolutions on Yemen.

**Related Constitutional Articles, Acts, or Policies**

While no direct Indian constitutional article dictates the UAE's foreign policy, India's own foreign policy is guided by **Article 51 of the Constitution**, which directs the state to promote international peace and security, maintain just and honourable relations between nations, foster respect for international law and treaty obligations, and encourage settlement of international disputes by arbitration. India's engagement with the Yemen crisis, primarily through humanitarian aid and advocating for peaceful resolution, aligns with these principles. India also adheres to international conventions and UN Security Council resolutions, such as **UNSC Resolution 2216 (2015)**, which called for a political transition in Yemen and condemned Houthi actions. India's 'Act West' policy, a strategic extension of its foreign policy, underscores the importance of maintaining robust ties with the Gulf region, making developments like the UAE's withdrawal directly relevant to India's strategic calculations.