Saudi calls Yemen's southern factions to 'dialogue' in Riyadh

The recent call by Saudi Arabia for Yemen's southern factions to engage in dialogue in Riyadh represents a pivotal moment in the protracted and devastating Yemeni Civil War. This initiative underscores a shifting dynamic in the conflict, particularly regarding the roles of regional powers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), who have been deeply entrenched in Yemen for years, supporting various anti-Houthi factions.

To truly understand this development, we must first delve into the background of the Yemeni conflict. Yemen, the poorest country in the Arabian Peninsula, has been engulfed in a brutal civil war since late 2014, when Houthi rebels, an Iran-aligned Zaidi Shia group, seized the capital Sana'a and much of the country's north. This led to the collapse of the internationally recognized government of President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi. In March 2015, Saudi Arabia, leading a coalition of Arab states including the UAE, launched 'Operation Decisive Storm' with the stated aim of restoring Hadi's government and countering perceived Iranian expansionism. The conflict quickly devolved into a complex proxy war, creating one of the world's worst humanitarian crises, with millions facing starvation and displacement.

The 'southern factions' mentioned in the article primarily refer to groups like the Southern Transitional Council (STC). The STC is a secessionist political body formed in 2017, advocating for the independence of South Yemen, which was an independent state until its unification with North Yemen in 1990. The UAE, while part of the Saudi-led coalition, has historically cultivated strong ties with and provided significant military and financial support to the STC and other southern forces. This created a paradoxical situation where coalition partners supported different, sometimes opposing, Yemeni factions within the anti-Houthi bloc, leading to clashes even among those supposedly fighting a common enemy. The call for dialogue in Riyadh, therefore, aims to bring these disparate southern factions, often at odds with the internationally recognized government they are supposedly allied with, under a unified umbrella or at least to manage their tensions.

Key stakeholders in this complex scenario include Saudi Arabia, which seeks a stable southern border and to counter Iranian influence, but has found itself bogged down in a costly and unpopular war. The UAE, while having reduced its direct military presence, retains significant influence through its proxies like the STC, furthering its own strategic interests in controlling ports and coastal areas. Yemen's internationally recognized government, now represented by the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) formed in April 2022 to replace President Hadi, remains weak and fragmented, struggling to assert authority. The Houthi rebels, though not part of this specific dialogue, remain the primary adversary, controlling large swathes of territory. Iran, backing the Houthis, continues to be a crucial external player in the regional power struggle.

For India, the stability of the Arabian Peninsula and the wider West Asian region is of paramount importance. Firstly, **energy security**: India imports over 80% of its crude oil, with a significant portion coming from the Gulf region. Any disruption in supply or price volatility due to conflict directly impacts India's economy. Secondly, the **Indian diaspora**: The Gulf hosts over 9 million Indian expatriates whose remittances are vital to India's economy. Their safety and well-being are a constant concern. Thirdly, **trade routes**: The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, at the mouth of the Red Sea, is a critical choke point for international shipping, including a substantial portion of India's trade. Instability or blockades in this region can severely impact global supply chains and India's maritime trade. Fourthly, **counter-terrorism**: A prolonged conflict and state collapse can create fertile ground for extremist groups, posing a potential security threat. India's foreign policy, guided by principles such as those enshrined in **Article 51 of the Constitution** (promotion of international peace and security), advocates for peaceful resolution of disputes and maintaining stability in its extended neighborhood. India's 'Look West' policy emphasizes strong economic and strategic ties with Gulf nations, making regional peace a direct national interest.

Historically, Yemen has been a battleground for external powers, from the Ottoman Empire to the British, and later becoming a proxy stage during the Cold War. The current conflict, while unique in its internal dynamics, echoes this history of external interference. Saudi Arabia's direct engagement with southern factions suggests a pragmatic shift, possibly aiming to consolidate anti-Houthi forces, or even to find an exit strategy from the conflict by empowering a more manageable, if not unified, southern entity. This dialogue could be a precursor to broader peace talks, or it could further entrench the fragmentation of Yemen, leading to a de facto North-South partition. The future implications are profound: a successful dialogue could pave the way for a more stable anti-Houthi front or even a negotiated settlement, potentially involving a power-sharing agreement or a future referendum on southern independence. Conversely, failure could deepen internal divisions, prolong the conflict, and exacerbate the humanitarian crisis, further challenging regional stability and India's strategic interests.

In essence, Saudi Arabia's call for dialogue is a calculated move in a complex geopolitical chess game, reflecting both the challenges and the evolving strategies of regional powers in a deeply fractured Yemen. Its outcome will have ripple effects across the Gulf, impacting global energy markets, maritime security, and the lives of millions, including the Indian diaspora.