Kashmir sees clear skies, dip in night temperatures; Gulmarg coldest at minus seven degrees Celsius

Kashmir's 'Chilla-e-Kalan' is not merely a period of extreme cold; it's a defining climatic phenomenon deeply woven into the region's geography, culture, and economy. This 40-day stretch, typically from December 21st to January 31st, represents the harshest phase of winter, characterized by sub-zero temperatures, frequent snowfall, and often, clear skies as highlighted by recent reports, with places like Gulmarg plummeting to minus seven degrees Celsius.

**Background Context:** Jammu and Kashmir, situated in the Great Himalayan range, experiences a diverse climate, but its winters are particularly severe. This is largely due to its high altitude and the influence of Western Disturbances – extra-tropical storm systems originating in the Mediterranean region that bring precipitation (rain and snow) to the northern Indian subcontinent. While Western Disturbances often bring snowfall, periods of clear skies can lead to intense radiative cooling, causing temperatures to drop significantly, especially at night. 'Chilla-e-Kalan' is followed by 'Chilla-e-Khurd' (small cold, 20 days) and 'Chilla-e-Bacha' (baby cold, 10 days), completing the traditional winter cycle.

**What Happened:** The recent reports indicate typical 'Chilla-e-Kalan' conditions: clear skies and a significant dip in night temperatures, with Gulmarg recording -7°C. Clear skies during winter nights allow heat radiated from the Earth's surface to escape unhindered into the atmosphere, leading to a rapid fall in temperature, a phenomenon known as nocturnal radiation. This contrasts with cloudy nights where clouds act as a blanket, trapping some of the outgoing radiation and keeping temperatures relatively higher. The severity of cold during this period is crucial for the region's ecology and economy.

**Key Stakeholders Involved:**

* **Local Population:** Farmers, daily wage earners, and residents are directly impacted, adapting their lives with traditional wear like 'Pheran' and portable heaters called 'Kangri'. Their livelihoods, dependent on agriculture and horticulture, are deeply tied to the winter precipitation.

* **Agriculture and Horticulture Sector:** Snowfall during 'Chilla-e-Kalan' is vital for replenishing glaciers and perennial water sources, which are critical for irrigation during spring and summer. Insufficient snowfall can severely impact apple orchards, saffron cultivation, and other crops.

* **Tourism Industry:** While extreme cold can deter some tourists, it also attracts winter sports enthusiasts to destinations like Gulmarg for skiing and snowboarding. However, ensuring accessibility and essential services becomes a challenge for the administration.

* **Government (Union Territory Administration):** The administration is responsible for maintaining essential services (power, water supply), road connectivity, disaster management (snow clearance, avalanche warnings), and ensuring public safety. This falls under the purview of the Disaster Management Act, 2005.

* **Security Forces:** Operating in sub-zero temperatures and heavy snowfall poses significant challenges for security forces stationed along the Line of Control and interior regions.

**Why This Matters for India:**

* **Water Security:** The snow accumulated during 'Chilla-e-Kalan' is a primary source for major rivers like the Jhelum, Chenab, and ultimately, the Indus system. These rivers are lifelines for agriculture in the plains of North India, making Kashmir's winter crucial for national food and water security.

* **Economic Impact:** Kashmir's economy relies heavily on tourism, horticulture, and handicrafts. A good winter season with adequate snowfall boosts the tourism sector and ensures healthy agricultural yields, contributing to the broader Indian economy.

* **Strategic Importance:** As a border region, stable environmental conditions are vital for maintaining infrastructure and security. Extreme weather events can complicate logistical operations and border management.

* **Climate Change Indicators:** Changes in the duration or intensity of 'Chilla-e-Kalan' can serve as critical indicators of climate change impacts on the Himalayan ecosystem, affecting biodiversity and water resources across India. The National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) and its various missions, like the National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem (NMSHE), are relevant here.

**Historical Context:** 'Chilla-e-Kalan' has been observed for centuries, shaping the unique culture and resilience of Kashmiris. Traditional architecture, clothing, and heating methods are all adaptations to this harsh period. The local wisdom and practices associated with these 40 days are a testament to generations of living in harmony with nature's extremes.

**Future Implications:** The most significant future implication revolves around climate change. Erratic weather patterns, reduced snowfall, or unseasonal rains could severely impact Kashmir's glaciers, water resources, and agricultural productivity. This would have cascading effects on river systems downstream, affecting millions. There is a growing need for enhanced climate resilience strategies, robust early warning systems for avalanches and blizzards, and sustainable development plans for the region's economy, especially tourism and agriculture. While specific constitutional articles directly governing weather phenomena are absent, the broader framework of environmental protection (e.g., Article 48A on protection and improvement of environment) and disaster management (under the concurrent list) empowers the state and central governments to formulate policies to mitigate the impacts of such extreme weather events and climate change.

This period underscores the intricate relationship between geography, climate, culture, and economy in a strategically vital region of India.