China taxes condoms, contraceptive drugs in bid to spur birth rate

China's recent policy decision to tax condoms and contraceptive drugs marks a significant and somewhat desperate attempt to reverse its alarming population decline. This move, coming after a third consecutive year of population shrinkage in 2024, underscores the profound demographic challenges facing the world's most populous nation and offers crucial lessons for countries like India.

**Background Context: From One-Child to No-Child?**

The roots of China's current demographic crisis lie in its stringent population control policies, most notably the 'One-Child Policy,' implemented from 1979 to 2015. This policy, enforced through fines, forced abortions, and sterilizations, was initially successful in curbing rapid population growth and was credited with lifting millions out of poverty. However, it also led to severe unintended consequences: a rapidly aging population, a significant gender imbalance due to a cultural preference for male heirs (resulting in millions of 'missing' girls), and the '4-2-1' family structure, where one child would be responsible for two parents and four grandparents. Recognizing the impending demographic time bomb, China relaxed the policy to a 'Two-Child Policy' in 2016 and further to a 'Three-Child Policy' in 2021, coupled with various incentives like extended maternity leave and childcare subsidies. Yet, these measures have largely failed to inspire a baby boom, as high costs of living, education, and childcare, coupled with changing societal norms and career aspirations, particularly among women, have kept birth rates stubbornly low.

**What Happened: A Drastic Policy Shift**

Faced with a continuing population downturn and a rapidly shrinking workforce, the Chinese government has resorted to more direct, and some might say controversial, measures. The decision to tax condoms and contraceptive drugs is a clear signal of the government's intent to disincentivize family planning and encourage higher birth rates. This is a radical departure from conventional public health approaches that promote access to contraception for reproductive health and family welfare. The expectation is that by making contraception more expensive or less accessible, individuals and couples will be 'nudged' towards having more children. This policy highlights the state's deep concern over its demographic future, which directly impacts its economic growth potential, social stability, and geopolitical standing.

**Key Stakeholders and Their Roles**

The primary stakeholder is the **Chinese Government (Communist Party of China)**, which views demographic stability as critical for national power and economic sustained growth. Their goal is to prevent a demographic collapse that could undermine China's long-term ambitions. **Chinese citizens**, particularly women and young couples, are directly impacted. They face increased financial burdens for contraception and potential pressure to conform to state-mandated family sizes, potentially infringing on their reproductive autonomy. The **healthcare and pharmaceutical industries** producing contraceptives will also be affected by the new taxation regime and potential shifts in demand. Finally, **demographers and economists** globally are closely watching these developments, analyzing their effectiveness and potential broader implications for global economic trends and labor markets.

**Significance for India: Lessons and Comparisons**

For India, which recently surpassed China as the world's most populous nation, China's demographic predicament offers critical insights. India is currently experiencing its 'demographic dividend,' with a large young working-age population. However, India also faces its own challenges, including regional disparities in fertility rates, the need for robust job creation, and ensuring quality education and healthcare. China's experience serves as a cautionary tale: while population control was deemed necessary, extreme measures and their long-term consequences can be detrimental. India's **National Population Policy 2000** has focused on voluntary and informed choices in family planning, aiming for a stable population by 2045 through a 'target-free approach' and promoting small family norms. This approach respects individual reproductive autonomy, aligning with broader constitutional principles. India's **Directive Principles of State Policy (DPSP)**, particularly **Article 42** (provision for just and humane conditions of work and maternity relief) and **Article 47** (duty of the State to raise the level of nutrition and the standard of living and improve public health), implicitly support reproductive health and welfare. Furthermore, the **Medical Termination of Pregnancy (MTP) Act, 1971 (amended in 2021)**, ensures access to safe abortion services, upholding women's reproductive rights, which stands in stark contrast to China's current direction.

**Future Implications: A Risky Gamble?**

China's latest policy is a high-stakes gamble. Taxing contraception might lead to unintended consequences such as an increase in unsafe abortions, a rise in sexually transmitted infections (STIs), and a greater burden on women, without necessarily achieving the desired boost in birth rates. High costs of living and changing social values are deeper structural issues that cannot be easily overcome by disincentivizing contraception. If ineffective, China could face a prolonged economic slowdown due due to a shrinking workforce and consumer base, an overburdened social security and healthcare system for its elderly, and a reduced capacity for innovation. Geopolitically, a demographically weaker China might see its long-term global power projection diminished. India must observe these developments closely, continuing to prioritize voluntary, rights-based family planning and investing in human capital to fully harness its demographic dividend, learning from China's past mistakes and present struggles.