Analysis: Myanmar junta seeks legitimacy through a sham election

The political landscape of Myanmar has been a subject of intense scrutiny, particularly since the military coup on February 1, 2021. The current move by the military junta, known as the Tatmadaw, to orchestrate a 'sham election' is a critical development that mirrors its past strategies to legitimize its rule. This tactic is not new; it harks back to 2010 when the military, after decades of direct rule, installed its generals as civilian rulers through a similarly restricted electoral process.

**Background Context and What Happened:**

Myanmar, a nation with a tumultuous political history, has largely been under military control since a 1962 coup. A brief period of democratic transition began in 2011, following the promulgation of the 2008 Constitution, which, though designed by the military, allowed for a limited form of civilian government. This 'disciplined democracy' saw the emergence of Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD), which won a landslide victory in the 2015 general election, and again in November 2020. However, the military alleged widespread fraud in the 2020 elections, a claim largely unsubstantiated by international observers. On February 1, 2021, just hours before the newly elected parliament was set to convene, the Tatmadaw seized power, detaining State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi, President Win Myint, and other NLD leaders. This plunged the country into a severe crisis, leading to widespread protests, a brutal crackdown by the military, and the formation of a parallel National Unity Government (NUG) by elected parliamentarians and anti-junta activists. The junta's current plan for an election is widely seen as an attempt to lend a veneer of legitimacy to its rule, exclude the NLD, and consolidate power under a military-backed civilian administration.

**Key Stakeholders Involved:**

1. **The Myanmar Military (Tatmadaw):** The central actor, seeking to maintain and legitimize its grip on power. They control state apparatus and have a history of brutal suppression of dissent.

2. **National Unity Government (NUG):** Formed by elected NLD members and ethnic minority representatives, it operates as a parallel government, advocating for the restoration of democracy and a federal union. It enjoys significant popular support.

3. **Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs):** These diverse groups have been fighting the Tatmadaw for decades for greater autonomy. Their stance varies; some have allied with the NUG, forming the People's Defence Force (PDF), while others maintain a fragile ceasefire or a neutral position.

4. **ASEAN:** The regional bloc has attempted mediation through its 'Five-Point Consensus' adopted in April 2021, calling for an immediate cessation of violence and dialogue. However, its effectiveness has been limited due to its non-interference principle and internal divisions.

5. **United Nations and International Community:** Most democratic nations have condemned the coup and the junta's actions, imposing sanctions and calling for the release of political prisoners and the restoration of democracy. However, major powers like China and Russia have maintained engagement with the junta, complicating international efforts.

**Significance for India:**

Myanmar shares a 1,643 km land border with India and holds immense strategic importance. The instability directly impacts India's security and economic interests:

* **Security Concerns:** The porous border facilitates cross-border movement of insurgents (e.g., NSCN-K, ULFA), arms, and drugs. The influx of refugees from Myanmar's Chin State into India's Mizoram state since the coup has created humanitarian challenges. India's response to refugees, governed by the Foreigners Act, 1946, has been largely ad-hoc, balancing humanitarian concerns with national security.

* **Economic and Connectivity:** The Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project (KMMTTP), a flagship initiative under India's 'Act East Policy' and 'Neighbourhood First Policy,' aims to connect Kolkata to Sittwe port in Myanmar and then via river and road to Mizoram. The project is vital for developing India's landlocked Northeast, but its progress has been severely hampered by the ongoing conflict.

* **Geopolitical Balance:** Myanmar serves as a critical bridge between South Asia and Southeast Asia. The instability and potential for increased Chinese influence in Myanmar are significant concerns for India, which seeks to counter China's growing footprint in the Indian Ocean Region and its neighborhood.

**Historical Context and Future Implications:**

The 2010 election, which brought the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) to power, was widely criticized for being non-inclusive and unfair. It allowed former generals to shed their uniforms and become 'civilian' leaders. The current 'sham election' aims for a similar outcome, further entrenching military rule under a civilian facade. This move is likely to intensify the civil war, exacerbate the humanitarian crisis, and deepen the country's economic woes. The NUG and EAOs are unlikely to recognize any election held by the junta, leading to prolonged conflict. For India, this means continued border instability, refugee influx, and challenges to its regional connectivity projects. The international community faces a dilemma: how to pressure the junta without further isolating Myanmar and pushing it deeper into the embrace of non-democratic powers. The future of Myanmar hinges on whether the democratic forces can sustain their resistance and garner sufficient international support to overturn the military's authoritarian ambitions.

While direct Indian constitutional articles on foreign policy are limited to broad principles (e.g., Article 51 on promotion of international peace and security), India's engagement with Myanmar is guided by its 'Neighbourhood First' policy, emphasizing development and security cooperation with contiguous nations, and the 'Act East Policy,' aimed at strengthening ties with Southeast Asian countries for strategic and economic benefits.