End of an era as Bangladesh ex-PM Zia dies

The passing of Ms. Khaleda Zia, former Prime Minister of Bangladesh, marks the end of a profoundly influential political era in a nation intrinsically linked with India. Her demise brings to a close the "Battle of the Begums," a decades-long, often acrimonious rivalry with current Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, which has singularly defined Bangladeshi politics since the early 1990s. Understanding this rivalry and its resolution is crucial for comprehending the political trajectory of Bangladesh and its implications for India.

**Background Context: The Genesis of a Rivalry**

Bangladesh's political landscape post-1971 liberation has been turbulent, marked by coups, assassinations, and the struggle for democratic stability. The "Battle of the Begums" is rooted in the legacies of two towering figures: Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the architect of Bangladesh's independence and father of Sheikh Hasina, and General Ziaur Rahman, a freedom fighter and later military ruler, husband of Khaleda Zia. Both Mujibur Rahman and Ziaur Rahman were assassinated, leaving behind political vacuums that their wives stepped in to fill, transforming personal tragedy into political dynasties. Sheikh Hasina took the reins of the Awami League (AL), championing secularism and a pro-India stance, while Khaleda Zia led the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), often perceived as more nationalist, Islamist-leaning, and at times, critical of India.

From 1991 onwards, Bangladesh witnessed a unique phenomenon where power alternated almost exclusively between these two women. Each victory was often followed by allegations of electoral fraud, political vendettas, and a lack of constructive opposition. This cycle of confrontation, marked by strikes, protests, and a deep personalization of politics, often hampered governance and economic development, creating a volatile domestic environment.

**Key Stakeholders and Their Roles**

Beyond Ms. Zia and Sheikh Hasina, several key stakeholders have shaped this narrative. The **Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)**, now without its charismatic leader, faces an existential crisis and a significant leadership vacuum. Its future trajectory, internal cohesion, and ability to challenge the ruling Awami League are now uncertain. The **Awami League (AL)**, led by Sheikh Hasina, has consolidated power significantly, especially following the 2014 and 2018 elections. With the primary rival figure gone, the AL's dominance might become even more pronounced, potentially leading to questions about the health of multi-party democracy in Bangladesh. The **Bangladeshi electorate** consistently sought stability and development, often caught between the political machinations of the two camps. The **Bangladeshi military**, historically a powerful political actor, has largely remained in the barracks in recent decades, but its subtle influence on political stability cannot be overlooked. Finally, **India** stands as a crucial regional stakeholder, deeply invested in Bangladesh's stability and democratic health.

**Significance for India**

Bangladesh is not just a neighbor; it's a vital strategic partner for India. Its stability directly impacts India's security, economy, and regional aspirations. The "Battle of the Begums" often complicated India-Bangladesh relations. While Sheikh Hasina's Awami League has generally fostered stronger ties with India, particularly on security cooperation, connectivity, and trade, the BNP's periods in power sometimes saw a more cautious, if not at times antagonistic, approach. This included concerns over cross-border infiltration, support for insurgent groups operating in India's Northeast, and a less enthusiastic embrace of connectivity projects.

With Ms. Zia's passing, India hopes for continued stability and a more predictable political environment in Bangladesh. A stable Bangladesh is critical for India's 'Neighbourhood First' policy and 'Act East' policy, facilitating trade, energy security, and regional connectivity projects like the BBIN Motor Vehicle Agreement. Security cooperation, especially against radical elements and cross-border crime, remains paramount. Resolving long-standing issues such as the Teesta river water-sharing dispute could see new momentum with a more unified political landscape in Dhaka.

**Future Implications**

The immediate implication is a significant shift in Bangladesh's political dynamics. The BNP faces the daunting task of reinventing itself, finding new leadership, and establishing a coherent political strategy without its iconic figurehead. This could lead to internal fragmentation within the party or, conversely, a new leader might emerge to revitalize the opposition. For the Awami League, while it might enjoy an unchallenged position, the absence of a strong opposition can sometimes lead to democratic backsliding and a lack of accountability. The challenge for Bangladesh's democracy will be to ensure that political space for dissent and opposition remains vibrant, fostering a healthy multi-party system.

For India, the future holds potential for even stronger bilateral ties, provided Bangladesh maintains its trajectory of economic growth and political stability. India's foreign policy, guided by principles of mutual respect and non-interference in internal affairs, will continue to engage with Bangladesh on multiple fronts. The emphasis will remain on fostering connectivity, enhancing trade, and addressing shared security challenges, ensuring that the critical eastern frontier remains peaceful and prosperous. While the 'Battle of the Begums' is over, its legacy will continue to shape Bangladesh's political identity, and by extension, its relationship with India for years to come.