El Niño missing, blame fossil fuel for deadlier climate extremes in 2025: WWA

The recent warning from scientists, highlighted in the article, that extreme weather events will intensify globally by 2025 due to fossil fuels, even in the absence of El Niño, underscores a critical juncture in the global climate crisis. This projection, attributed in part to the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group, signals that anthropogenic factors are now overriding natural climate variability to an alarming degree, pushing societies beyond their coping capacities.

To truly grasp the gravity of this warning, we must first understand its background context. The Earth's climate system is a delicate balance, increasingly disrupted by the accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. These gases, primarily carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, trap heat, leading to a phenomenon known as global warming. The overwhelming scientific consensus, spearheaded by bodies like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), attributes the significant rise in GHGs since the Industrial Revolution to human activities, predominantly the burning of fossil fuels – coal, oil, and natural gas – for energy, industry, and transportation. El Niño, on the other hand, is a natural climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean that can significantly influence global weather, often leading to warmer global temperatures. The fact that extreme weather is projected to intensify *without* El Niño suggests that the baseline warming caused by fossil fuel emissions is now so profound that it can independently drive severe climate events.

The key stakeholders in this unfolding scenario are diverse. Scientists and research bodies like the WWA and IPCC are crucial for providing the evidence, projections, and warnings that inform policy. Governments, both national and international, are the policymakers, regulators, and implementers of climate action, responsible for setting targets, enacting legislation, and managing disaster response. The fossil fuel industry, a major contributor to emissions, faces the complex challenge of transitioning away from its core business model. Civil society, environmental activists, and the general public play vital roles in raising awareness and advocating for stronger climate action. Most critically, vulnerable communities, particularly in developing nations, are on the front lines, bearing the disproportionate brunt of climate impacts.

For India, a nation highly susceptible to climate change, this warning carries immense significance. Geographically, India is vulnerable to a range of extreme weather events, including intense heatwaves, devastating floods, prolonged droughts, powerful cyclones along its extensive coastline, and glacial melt in the Himalayas. These events have profound economic, social, and political ramifications. Economically, they lead to massive infrastructure damage, agricultural losses impacting food security and farmer livelihoods, disruption of supply chains, and significant strain on public finances for relief and rehabilitation. Socially, climate extremes exacerbate poverty, lead to displacement and migration, worsen public health crises (e.g., vector-borne diseases, heat stress), and can intensify existing inequalities. Politically, managing these crises becomes a major governance challenge, requiring robust disaster management frameworks and long-term adaptation strategies.

Historically, the global recognition of climate change began to solidify in the late 20th century. Major international efforts include the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted in 1992, which established an international environmental treaty to combat