China ‘mediated’ in Pakistan, India tensions: Wang Yi

The claim by China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi regarding Beijing's mediation in the 'Operation Sindoor' conflict between India and Pakistan from May 7-10 this year throws a critical spotlight on the intricate and often contradictory geopolitical dynamics of South Asia. This assertion is particularly significant given the simultaneous scrutiny over China's provision of military assistance to Pakistan during the very same period. Understanding this event requires delving into the historical context of India-Pakistan relations, India-China relations, and the evolving China-Pakistan strategic nexus.

Historically, India and Pakistan have been locked in a protracted conflict since their independence in 1947, marked by multiple wars (1947, 1965, 1971, Kargil 1999) and ongoing border skirmishes, particularly along the Line of Control (LoC). China, meanwhile, has been a long-standing strategic partner of Pakistan, a relationship often described as 'all-weather friendship'. This partnership has deep roots in shared strategic interests, primarily aimed at countering India's regional influence. China's economic and military assistance to Pakistan has been a consistent feature of this relationship, extending to nuclear and missile technology transfers in the past, and more recently, significant infrastructure projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship component of Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

The 'Operation Sindoor' conflict, though not widely detailed in public reports, represents another instance of heightened tensions between India and Pakistan. Against this backdrop, China's claim of mediation is highly problematic. Mediation, by definition, requires neutrality and impartiality. However, China's concurrent provision of military aid to Pakistan directly undermines any credible claim of neutrality. This dual role — presenting itself as a peacemaker while materially supporting one party to the conflict — raises serious questions about China's intentions and its commitment to regional stability. It suggests a strategic maneuver to project influence and perhaps even control the narrative surrounding regional conflicts, rather than genuinely de-escalate tensions.

Key stakeholders in this scenario are India, Pakistan, and China. For India, this situation is a complex challenge to its foreign policy. India has consistently maintained that bilateral issues with Pakistan should be resolved bilaterally, without third-party intervention. China's unsolicited mediation claim, especially from a nation with whom India has its own unresolved border disputes (e.g., 1962 war, Galwan Valley clashes in 2020) and growing strategic competition, is seen as an attempt to interfere and assert regional dominance. The military aid to Pakistan further exacerbates India's security concerns, necessitating robust defence preparedness and diplomatic countermeasures. Economically, CPEC, running through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, is also a point of contention for India, as it violates its sovereignty claims.

This matters immensely for India's national security and strategic autonomy. India's foreign policy is guided by principles of non-alignment (though evolved into strategic autonomy) and upholding its sovereign interests, as broadly reflected in the Directive Principles of State Policy (Article 51 of the Constitution) which advocates for the promotion of international peace and security and maintenance of just and honorable relations between nations. China's actions challenge India's efforts to manage its neighbourhood and maintain regional peace. It underscores the ongoing 'two-front' security challenge for India, involving both Pakistan and China. The incident also highlights the need for India to strengthen its alliances and partnerships, such as with QUAD countries (USA, Japan, Australia), to balance China's growing assertiveness.

Looking ahead, the future implications are significant. China's behavior signals a more assertive role in South Asian affairs, potentially leading to increased regional instability if its actions continue to be perceived as biased. India will likely redouble its efforts to strengthen its defence capabilities, diversify its strategic partnerships, and enhance its diplomatic engagement to counter China's influence. The incident could further entrench the India-China rivalry, with South Asia becoming a more pronounced arena for this geopolitical competition. It also necessitates a re-evaluation of international norms surrounding mediation and the responsibilities of major powers in conflict zones. For global governance, it raises questions about the effectiveness of international frameworks when a P5 member of the UN Security Council acts in a manner that contradicts principles of neutrality and peace-keeping. The continuous military modernization of Pakistan with Chinese assistance will remain a perpetual security challenge for India, demanding sustained vigilance and strategic responses.