Not satisfied with India’s response to Myanmar polls, say anti-junta rebels

The recent expression of dissatisfaction by anti-junta rebels in Myanmar regarding India's response to the upcoming elections highlights the intricate challenges New Delhi faces in balancing its strategic interests with democratic principles in its immediate neighbourhood. India's consistent call for 'inclusive elections' reflects its official diplomatic stance, yet the rebels' demand for 'more pressure' on the military junta underscores a perceived inadequacy in India's efforts to foster genuine democracy.

**Background Context: A Nation in Turmoil**

Myanmar, India's eastern neighbour, has a tumultuous political history marked by long periods of military rule. After decades of isolation, a fragile democratic transition began in 2011, culminating in the historic elections of 2015 and 2020, which saw Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) win by landslides. However, this democratic experiment was brutally cut short on February 1, 2021, when the Tatmadaw (Myanmar's armed forces) staged a military coup, overthrowing the elected NLD government, alleging widespread voter fraud without credible evidence. This coup plunged Myanmar into a severe political, economic, and humanitarian crisis, triggering widespread protests, a civil disobedience movement, and the formation of armed resistance groups, including the People's Defence Force (PDF) under the National Unity Government (NUG) – a shadow government formed by ousted lawmakers and ethnic minority representatives. The junta has since cracked down violently on dissent, leading to thousands of deaths and arrests, and displacing millions.

**What Happened and Key Stakeholders**

India's position has been to advocate for a return to democracy and the release of political prisoners, consistently calling for 'inclusive elections' and a peaceful resolution. This stance, however, is viewed as insufficient by anti-junta rebel groups, who interpret 'inclusive elections' under the current junta as a farce designed to legitimize military rule. They urge India to adopt a more assertive approach, similar to Western democracies, which have imposed sanctions and condemned the junta more strongly. The key stakeholders in this complex situation include:

1. **The Myanmar Military Junta (Tatmadaw):** The de facto rulers, responsible for the 2021 coup, and now planning elections to consolidate their power, albeit under conditions widely seen as unfair.

2. **Anti-Junta Rebel Groups/National Unity Government (NUG):** Representing a broad coalition of ethnic armed organizations and pro-democracy activists, they seek the restoration of democracy and have formed armed resistance to the junta.

3. **India:** A crucial neighbour with shared borders, significant economic and strategic interests, and a delicate balancing act between its democratic values and pragmatic foreign policy.

4. **ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations):** The regional bloc has attempted to mediate through its 'Five-Point Consensus' but has struggled to enforce it, highlighting the principle of non-interference.

5. **China:** Myanmar's largest trading partner and a key strategic ally, often perceived as a tacit supporter of the junta, complicating international efforts for a democratic transition.

6. **Western Democracies:** Nations like the United States and European Union have imposed sanctions and are vocal critics of the junta, advocating for human rights and democracy.

**Significance for India and Broader Themes**

This situation holds immense significance for India, primarily impacting its 'Act East Policy,' which aims to enhance economic, strategic, and cultural ties with Southeast Asian nations. Myanmar serves as India's land bridge to ASEAN, and stability in Myanmar is crucial for the success of projects like the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project. Instability directly threatens India's national security, particularly its sensitive Northeastern states, by potentially increasing cross-border insurgency, drug trafficking, and an influx of refugees (e.g., Kuki-Chin refugees in Mizoram), straining local resources and creating social tensions. India's foreign policy, guided by principles enshrined in **Article 51 of the Indian Constitution** (promotion of international peace and security, respect for international law), faces a dilemma: how to uphold democratic values while safeguarding strategic interests and managing border security. Historically, India initially supported Myanmar's pro-democracy movement but later shifted to a more pragmatic engagement with the military junta in the 1990s as part of its 'Look East Policy' (predecessor to Act East) to counter China's growing influence and address security concerns. The current scenario tests India's ability to navigate this complex geopolitical landscape, balancing its democratic credentials with realpolitik.

**Future Implications**

The immediate future points to continued civil conflict and a humanitarian crisis in Myanmar, with the junta likely proceeding with elections that lack legitimacy in the eyes of the international community and a significant portion of the Myanmar populace. India will face sustained pressure from both the international community and its own domestic stakeholders (especially states bordering Myanmar) to refine its policy. A more robust stance might risk alienating the junta and pushing it further into China's orbit, while a muted response could damage India's image as a champion of democracy and potentially exacerbate border issues. The situation underscores the challenges in promoting democratic transitions in states with deep-rooted military establishments and highlights the need for a nuanced, multilateral approach that prioritizes regional stability, humanitarian aid, and long-term democratic aspirations without undermining India's core strategic interests. India's ability to influence the outcome in Myanmar will be a critical test of its regional leadership and the efficacy of its 'Act East Policy'.