China holds military drills around Taiwan simulating ports blockade

The recent military drills conducted by China around Taiwan, simulating a ports blockade, represent a significant escalation in cross-strait tensions and have profound implications for regional and global stability. These drills, termed "Joint Sword-2024A," were a direct response to the inauguration of Taiwan's new President, Lai Ching-te, whom Beijing views as a separatist. China's Foreign Ministry Spokesman Lin Jian's assertion that any attempts to stop China’s unification with Taiwan are “doomed to fail” underscores Beijing's unwavering commitment to its 'One China' policy, even if it requires the use of force.

To understand the gravity of these drills, one must delve into the historical context. The 'One China' policy originates from the Chinese Civil War, which concluded in 1949 with the Communist Party of China (CPC) establishing the People's Republic of China (PRC) on the mainland, and the defeated Kuomintang (KMT) government retreating to Taiwan (then Republic of China, ROC). Beijing views Taiwan as a renegade province that must be reunified with the mainland, by force if necessary. This historical narrative is central to China's national identity and foreign policy. Internationally, the UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 of 1971 recognized the PRC as the sole legitimate representative of China, leading most countries, including India, to acknowledge the 'One China' principle, albeit with varying interpretations.

Key stakeholders in this complex geopolitical drama include China, Taiwan, and the United States. China, under President Xi Jinping, has adopted an increasingly assertive stance, viewing unification with Taiwan as a historical imperative. Taiwan, a vibrant democracy, asserts its de facto independence and has a democratically elected government. Its strategic location and critical role in the global semiconductor supply chain make it indispensable. The United States maintains a policy of 'strategic ambiguity' – acknowledging the 'One China' policy while also committing to assist Taiwan in maintaining its self-defense capabilities through the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979. This delicate balance is often tested by military actions and diplomatic statements. Other regional powers like Japan and the Philippines are also deeply concerned, given their geographical proximity and potential economic and security ramifications.

For India, the situation around Taiwan carries significant geopolitical and economic implications. While India officially adheres to the 'One China' policy, its relationship with Taiwan has been quietly strengthening, particularly in trade, technology, and cultural exchanges. The recent drills highlight the vulnerability of global supply chains, especially for critical components like semiconductors, which Taiwan dominates. Any disruption in the Taiwan Strait, a vital shipping lane, could severely impact India's trade and economic interests. Moreover, an assertive China in India's extended neighbourhood raises concerns about maritime security in the Indo-Pacific and the potential for similar coercive tactics in other disputed regions, such as the Line of Actual Control (LAC). India's foreign policy, guided by principles enshrined in Article 51 of the Constitution (promoting international peace and security, fostering respect for international law, and encouraging settlement of international disputes by arbitration), would advocate for a peaceful resolution. However, the situation also pushes India to strengthen its strategic autonomy and deepen its engagement with like-minded partners through forums like the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue).

Historically, the Taiwan question has been a flashpoint since the mid-20th century. The current drills are not an isolated event but part of a pattern of increasing military pressure from Beijing, especially following visits by foreign dignitaries or statements perceived as pro-independence. The future implications are concerning: increased militarization of the Indo-Pacific, a greater risk of miscalculation leading to open conflict, and immense pressure on global economies and technology supply chains. It also challenges the international rule-based order and could force countries to take clearer stances, potentially reshaping existing alliances and rivalries. The world watches closely, hoping for de-escalation while preparing for potential contingencies that could have far-reaching consequences for international peace and security.