Kerala likely to experience harsh summer as two monsoons play truant

Kerala, often dubbed 'God's Own Country' for its lush greenery and abundant water bodies, finds itself grappling with an unusual and concerning predicament: a looming harsh summer due to a significant shortfall in monsoon rainfall. This situation underscores the profound dependence of Indian states, even those historically blessed with rainfall, on the vagaries of the monsoon system and highlights the escalating impacts of climate change.

**Background Context and What Happened:**

India's climate is predominantly tropical monsoon type, with the Southwest Monsoon (June-September) accounting for nearly 75% of the country's annual rainfall, crucial for agriculture and water security. Kerala, being on the western coast, receives copious rainfall from the Southwest Monsoon, which makes its first landfall there. Additionally, the state benefits significantly from the Northeast Monsoon (October-December), also known as the retreating monsoon, which brings rain to the southern peninsular region, particularly Tamil Nadu and parts of Kerala. This dual monsoon system has historically ensured Kerala's water security and hydroelectric power generation. However, the current crisis stems from both these crucial monsoons 'playing truant,' meaning they have delivered significantly below-average rainfall. This double whammy has led to a severe depletion of reservoir water levels, which are vital not only for drinking water but also for irrigation and hydroelectric power generation, a primary source of electricity for the state. The immediate consequence is the anticipation of a severe summer, marked by water scarcity and potential power cuts.

**Key Stakeholders Involved:**

Several stakeholders are directly affected and involved in managing this crisis. The **Kerala State Government** and its various departments, particularly the **Water Resources Department** and the **Kerala State Electricity Board (KSEB)**, are at the forefront. The government is responsible for policy formulation, water allocation, and disaster preparedness. KSEB manages the state's vast network of hydroelectric dams and reservoirs, and a deficit in water directly impacts its power generation capacity. **Farmers** are another critical stakeholder, as their livelihoods are intrinsically linked to adequate rainfall for crop cultivation. The **general public** will bear the brunt of water scarcity for daily consumption and potential power outages. Institutions like the **India Meteorological Department (IMD)** play a crucial role in forecasting and providing timely warnings, while **National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA)** and **State Disaster Management Authority (SDMA)** are responsible for coordinating relief and mitigation efforts.

**Why This Matters for India:**

This situation in Kerala is not an isolated event but a microcosm of a larger challenge facing India. India's economy is still largely agrarian, with agriculture contributing significantly to the GDP and employing a large workforce. Monsoon failures, whether regional or widespread, have direct implications for agricultural output, food security, and rural incomes. A poor monsoon often leads to inflation, especially food inflation, which impacts the common citizen. Moreover, water scarcity can exacerbate inter-state water disputes, a sensitive issue in India, as states vie for limited resources. For Kerala, a state heavily reliant on hydroelectric power, water deficits translate directly into energy insecurity, potentially forcing a reliance on more expensive thermal power, impacting the state's finances and industrial output. This scenario also highlights India's vulnerability to climate change, with extreme weather events, including erratic monsoons, becoming more frequent and intense.

**Historical Context and Future Implications:**

India has a long history of monsoon variability, with droughts and floods being recurrent features. Major droughts, such as those in 1965, 1972, 1987, 2002, and 2009, have had significant socio-economic impacts. The current situation in Kerala, while perhaps not reaching the scale of national droughts, serves as a stark reminder of this historical vulnerability, exacerbated by contemporary climate patterns. Looking ahead, the future implications are profound. This situation calls for robust **water management strategies**, including rainwater harvesting, rejuvenation of traditional water bodies, efficient irrigation techniques (e.g., micro-irrigation), and inter-basin water transfer where feasible. Investment in **climate-resilient agriculture** and diversification of energy sources to reduce over-reliance on hydro-power are crucial. Furthermore, policies aimed at **climate change adaptation and mitigation** are paramount. This includes implementing provisions of the **National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC)**, launched in 2008, which outlines eight national missions focusing on sustainable development, energy efficiency, and water conservation. The increasing frequency of such events necessitates a paradigm shift towards proactive planning rather than reactive crisis management.

**Related Constitutional Articles, Acts, or Policies:**

Water is primarily a **State Subject** under **Entry 17 of List II (State List) of the Seventh Schedule** of the Indian Constitution, meaning state governments have the primary responsibility for water supply, irrigation, canals, drainage, embankments, water storage, and water power. However, **Article 262** empowers Parliament to provide for the adjudication of any dispute or complaint with respect to the use, distribution, or control of the waters of, or in, any inter-state river or river valley. While the current issue is intra-state, the constitutional framework for water governance is vital. The **Disaster Management Act, 2005**, provides the legal framework for effective management of disasters, including droughts and water scarcity, at national, state, and district levels, establishing bodies like the NDMA and SDMAs. Furthermore, environmental protection and climate action are reflected in **Article 48A** (Directive Principle of State Policy) which mandates the State to endeavour to protect and improve the environment and to safeguard the forests and wildlife of the country, and **Article 51A(g)** (Fundamental Duty) which enjoins every citizen to protect and improve the natural environment. These provisions underpin the need for sustainable water resource management and climate resilience.