Deal with it! When Trump said no, India said yes

The year 2025, as depicted in the scenario, marks a significant moment in India's evolving foreign trade policy, showcasing a confident and assertive approach on the global stage. This development isn't an isolated incident but rather a culmination of India's strategic shifts in response to a fragmented and often protectionist international economic order.

**Background Context and What Happened:**

Leading up to this period, the global trade landscape has been characterized by increasing geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and a rise in protectionist tendencies, exemplified by the 'America First' doctrine that often led to tariff pressures and bilateral trade disputes. India, historically cautious with extensive Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) due to concerns about domestic industry impact, began recalibrating its strategy post-economic liberalization in 1991. The early 2020s saw India actively pursuing bilateral and plurilateral trade agreements, moving away from larger multilateral blocs like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) when its national interests weren't adequately addressed. The scenario in 2025 illustrates India's refusal to succumb to perceived 'coercive timelines' and 'tariff pressure' from the United States. Instead of capitulating, India strategically diversified its partnerships, securing crucial trade agreements with New Zealand, Oman, and the United Kingdom. This move underscored a clear prioritization of national interest and long-term goals over short-term pressures.

**Key Stakeholders Involved:**

* **India:** The primary stakeholder, represented by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, the Ministry of External Affairs, and various negotiating teams. Their motivation was to secure favorable trade terms, diversify export markets, enhance supply chain resilience, and bolster India's strategic autonomy. This aligns with the 'Atmanirbhar Bharat' (Self-Reliant India) vision, which emphasizes global integration on India's own terms.

* **United States:** Under the hypothetical 'Trump' administration (or a similar policy stance), the US's motivation would likely be to leverage its economic power to secure advantageous bilateral deals, reduce trade deficits, and protect domestic industries, often through tariffs and bilateral pressure.

* **New Zealand, Oman, and United Kingdom:** These partner countries were motivated by opportunities for market access to India's vast consumer base, diversification of their own trade relationships, and strengthening geopolitical ties. For instance, the UK, post-Brexit, has been aggressively seeking new trade partners globally, while Oman, a key player in the Gulf region, offers strategic energy and connectivity advantages.

**Why This Matters for India:**

This confident trade strategy holds immense significance for India across multiple dimensions:

* **Economic Impact:** Diversifying trade partners reduces reliance on any single market, mitigating risks associated with protectionist policies in major economies. FTAs with countries like New Zealand (dairy, agriculture), Oman (energy, logistics, investment), and the UK (services, technology, manufacturing) open new avenues for Indian exports, attract foreign investment, and integrate India more deeply into global value chains, fostering economic growth and job creation.

* **Geopolitical and Strategic Autonomy:** By resisting pressure and forging new alliances, India enhances its strategic autonomy. It projects an image of a confident nation capable of charting its own course in a multipolar world. This strengthens its position in global forums and allows it to balance relationships with major powers more effectively. It also reinforces its role as a significant player in the Indo-Pacific and a reliable partner for like-minded nations.

* **Domestic Implications:** Successful trade deals can boost domestic manufacturing, services, and agriculture sectors by providing access to new markets and technology. However, it also necessitates domestic reforms to enhance competitiveness and address potential challenges from increased imports.

**Historical Context and Related Policies:**

India's journey from a largely protectionist economy post-independence to a globalizing power after the 1991 reforms has been complex. While initial liberalization focused on multilateralism through the WTO, the 21st century saw a greater emphasis on bilateral and regional FTAs. The current approach is a more mature manifestation of this, balancing global engagement with national interests. Government initiatives like the Foreign Trade Policy (FTP), 'Make in India,' and Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes complement this trade strategy by aiming to make India a global manufacturing and export hub, thereby strengthening its negotiating position.

**Constitutional Articles and Acts:**

India's power to enter into international agreements is primarily derived from **Article 253** of the Constitution, which states that Parliament has the power to make any law for implementing any treaty, agreement, or convention with any other country or any decision made at any international conference, association, or other body. This provides the constitutional basis for India's trade agreements. Furthermore, **Entry 14 of the Union List (Seventh Schedule)** grants the Union government exclusive power over 'entering into treaties and agreements with foreign countries and implementing of treaties, agreements, and conventions with foreign countries.' The **Foreign Trade (Development and Regulation) Act, 1992**, empowers the Central Government to make provisions for the development and regulation of foreign trade.

**Future Implications:**

This assertive stance is likely to be a defining feature of India's foreign policy. We can expect continued diversification of trade partners, including a focus on the Global South, Africa, and Latin America. India may also push for reforms within multilateral bodies like the WTO to ensure fairer and more equitable trade rules. The success of these FTAs will depend on effective implementation, addressing non-tariff barriers, and ensuring that domestic industries are adequately prepared to leverage the opportunities while managing competition. This strategic autonomy will allow India greater flexibility in navigating future geopolitical shifts and economic uncertainties, positioning it as a pivotal economic power in the 21st century.