Security tightened in Manipur’s Bishnupur day after shots fired by unidentified miscreants

The recent incident of gunshots in Manipur's Bishnupur district, specifically near Torbung and Phougakchao Ikhai areas bordering Churachandpur, serves as a stark reminder of the deep-seated ethnic fault lines and persistent internal security challenges plaguing the northeastern state. This is not an isolated event but a continuation of a protracted conflict that erupted in May 2023, primarily between the Meitei community inhabiting the valley and the Kuki-Zo communities residing in the hill districts.

To truly understand this crisis, we must delve into its background. Manipur is a geographically diverse state, with the fertile Imphal Valley forming about 10% of its landmass, home primarily to the Meitei community, who constitute over 53% of the state's population. The remaining 90% of the land, comprising hilly terrain, is inhabited by various tribal communities, predominantly the Naga and Kuki-Zo groups. Historically, the Meiteis, though a majority, have been confined to the valley and were not classified as Scheduled Tribes (ST), unlike the Kuki-Zo and Naga communities. This distinction meant Meiteis could not buy land in the hill areas, while tribal communities could acquire land in the valley.

The immediate trigger for the current conflict was the Manipur High Court's directive in April 2023, asking the state government to consider the Meitei community's long-standing demand for ST status. This demand is rooted in their claim of protecting their ancestral land, culture, and identity, citing increasing population pressure in the valley and perceived threats from illegal immigration. However, the tribal communities, particularly the Kuki-Zo, vehemently opposed this, fearing that ST status for Meiteis would allow them to purchase land in the hills, dilute tribal rights, and further marginalize them. This fear, coupled with government-led eviction drives against alleged encroachers in reserved forest areas (perceived by tribals as targeting them), and concerns over illegal immigration from Myanmar, ignited widespread protests that quickly escalated into violent clashes, arson, and a tragic loss of lives.

Key stakeholders in this complex scenario include the Meitei community, advocating for their rights and security; the Kuki-Zo communities, fighting for their land and identity protection; the Central Government, which has deployed significant paramilitary forces (Assam Rifles, CRPF) and the Indian Army to restore peace and order, and is involved in humanitarian efforts and peace initiatives; and the State Government, led by Chief Minister N. Biren Singh (a Meitei), which has faced criticism from both sides for its handling of the situation. Security forces, including the state police, are on the ground, tasked with separating warring factions and maintaining law and order, often operating under immense pressure in a highly volatile environment.

This ongoing instability in Manipur carries profound significance for India. Firstly, it poses a severe internal security challenge, undermining the rule of law and threatening the territorial integrity and social fabric of a sensitive border state. The breakdown of trust between communities and between the state and its citizens has led to a humanitarian crisis, with thousands displaced in relief camps. Economically, the conflict has crippled local trade, agriculture, and infrastructure projects, hindering development in a region crucial for India's 'Act East Policy'. This policy aims to enhance connectivity and economic ties with Southeast Asian nations, and stability in the Northeast is paramount for its success. Politically, the crisis tests India's federal structure, challenging the Centre-state coordination in managing severe internal disturbances and raising questions about governance and justice.

Historically, Manipur has a legacy of insurgency and ethnic tensions, leading to the imposition of the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act, 1958 (AFSPA) in many parts, though its coverage has been reduced over time. Previous clashes, such as those between Nagas and Kukis in the 1990s, highlight the fragility of ethnic relations. The current conflict, however, has created an unprecedented level of division, with calls for separate administrations for the Kuki-Zo areas.

Looking ahead, the future implications are grave. Without sustained efforts towards reconciliation and a political resolution, the conflict could further entrench ethnic divisions, potentially leading to long-term instability and demands for greater autonomy or even separate states. Economic recovery will be a monumental task, and the psychological trauma inflicted on the populace will endure for generations. The Central government's continued intervention, including dialogue with community leaders and addressing the root causes like land rights, demographic changes, and illegal immigration, is crucial. Constitutional provisions like **Article 355**, which mandates the Union to protect states against internal disturbance, underscore the Centre's responsibility. While not directly invoked, **Article 356** (President's Rule) remains a last resort in case of a complete breakdown of constitutional machinery. The effective implementation of policies related to border management and tribal welfare, alongside efforts to bridge the trust deficit, will be vital for any lasting peace.