BJP not keen on extending President’s Rule in Manipur, summons MLAs to Delhi tomorrow

The recent report indicating the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) disinclination to extend President's Rule in Manipur and the subsequent summoning of the state's Members of Legislative Assembly (MLAs) to Delhi marks a critical juncture in the political landscape of the northeastern state. This development is not merely a procedural step but reflects deeper constitutional, political, and social dynamics at play in India, especially concerning federalism and state governance.

**Background Context and What Happened:**

Manipur has been grappling with an unprecedented humanitarian crisis since May 2023, following an outbreak of ethnic violence between the Meitei and Kuki communities. This conflict, rooted in historical grievances over land, resources, and identity, led to widespread displacement, loss of life, and a complete breakdown of law and order in many areas. While the state was under an elected government led by Chief Minister N. Biren Singh (BJP), the central government, acknowledging the grave situation, deployed significant paramilitary forces. The imposition of President's Rule under Article 356 of the Constitution typically occurs when a state government cannot function according to constitutional provisions, often due to a breakdown of law and order or political instability. The current situation suggests that President's Rule might have been considered or was in place, and the BJP is now evaluating its extension or revocation, pushing for the restoration of a more stable political arrangement.

**Key Stakeholders Involved:**

1. **Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP):** As the ruling party at the Centre and the party that formed the government in Manipur before the crisis, the BJP's stance is paramount. Their decision not to extend President's Rule implies a move towards restoring an elected government, either by reinstating the previous one or exploring new political alignments. This decision is influenced by electoral considerations and the desire to project stability.

2. **Manipur MLAs:** The state's elected representatives are crucial. Their presence in Delhi signifies urgent consultations on the future political setup. They hold the mandate to form a government and represent the diverse ethnic groups within the state, making their consensus vital for any lasting solution.

3. **The Governor of Manipur:** The constitutional head of the state, the Governor plays a pivotal role. Under Article 356, the Governor's report to the President is usually the basis for imposing President's Rule. Upon its revocation, the Governor is responsible for inviting the party or coalition with a clear majority to form the government.

4. **The Union Government (President, Prime Minister, Union Home Ministry):** The ultimate authority for imposing, extending, or revoking President's Rule rests with the President, acting on the advice of the Union Cabinet. The Union Home Ministry, in particular, has been actively involved in managing the law and order situation in Manipur.

5. **The People of Manipur:** The Meitei, Kuki, Naga, and other communities are the primary beneficiaries or sufferers of any political decision. Their yearning for peace, security, and effective governance underscores the urgency of finding a stable political solution.

**Why This Matters for India and Historical Context:**

This situation is highly significant for Indian federalism. Article 356, often referred to as 'President's Rule' or 'State Emergency', allows the Centre to take over the administration of a state if its constitutional machinery fails. Historically, Article 356 has been a contentious provision, frequently criticized for its alleged misuse by the Centre to destabilize or dismiss state governments, particularly those of opposition parties. Landmark judgments like the **S.R. Bommai v. Union of India (1994)** case significantly curtailed the arbitrary use of Article 356, establishing that the power is not absolute and is subject to judicial review. The Supreme Court emphasized that the Centre must have concrete, verifiable grounds for imposing President's Rule and that the floor of the Assembly is the proper place to test the majority of a government.

Manipur, like many other North-Eastern states, has a complex history of insurgency, ethnic tensions, and political instability, leading to multiple instances of President's Rule. The current move away from extending central rule, especially amidst ongoing ethnic strife, signals a desire to restore democratic normalcy and perhaps share the responsibility of governance with elected state representatives. This could be seen as an attempt to empower local political actors to find solutions, rather than solely relying on central intervention, which might sometimes be perceived as detached from ground realities.

**Future Implications and Constitutional Provisions:**

If President's Rule is indeed not extended, the immediate implication will be the formation of an elected government. This could involve the existing BJP government continuing, possibly with a cabinet reshuffle, or a new coalition being formed if political equations have shifted. The challenge for any incoming government will be immense: fostering reconciliation between the warring communities, ensuring the safe return and rehabilitation of displaced persons, rebuilding trust, and restoring economic activities. The Centre's role will likely shift from direct administration to providing robust support, financial aid, and security assistance.

Constitutionally, the decision revolves around several articles:

* **Article 356:** The primary provision for President's Rule. It mandates that the President can impose central rule if satisfied, based on the Governor's report or otherwise, that a situation has arisen where the government of a state cannot be carried on in accordance with the provisions of the Constitution.

* **Article 355:** Imposes a duty on the Union to protect every State against external aggression and internal disturbance and to ensure that the government of every State is carried on in accordance with the provisions of this Constitution. This article provides the underlying rationale for central intervention.

* **Article 357:** Deals with the exercise of legislative powers under President's Rule, allowing Parliament to make laws for the state.

* **Article 163:** Defines the role of the Governor, who acts on the aid and advice of the Council of Ministers, except where the Constitution requires them to act in their discretion. The Governor's report under Article 356 is one such discretionary power, though subject to judicial scrutiny post-Bommai judgment.

The non-extension of President's Rule reflects a commitment to democratic principles and federal co-operation, even in challenging circumstances. It underscores the belief that local elected representatives are best placed to address complex state-specific issues, with central support. However, its success hinges on the ability of Manipur's political leadership to rise above partisan interests and work towards lasting peace and stability for all its citizens.