Extreme rainfall from cyclones Senyar and Ditwah made more intense by warming: WWA

The recent study by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group, highlighting the intensification of extreme rainfall from cyclones Senyar and Ditwah due to global warming, serves as a stark reminder of humanity's profound impact on Earth's climate system. This finding is not an isolated incident but rather fits into a broader, alarming trend of increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events globally, with significant implications for vulnerable regions like Southeast Asia and particularly India.

To truly grasp the significance, we must first understand the background. Global warming refers to the long-term heating of Earth's climate system observed since the pre-industrial period (between 1850 and 1900) due to human activities, primarily fossil fuel burning, which increases heat-trapping greenhouse gas levels in Earth's atmosphere. This warming leads to several cascading effects, one of the most critical being increased atmospheric moisture. The scientific principle underpinning this is the Clausius Clapeyron equation, which states that for every degree Celsius rise in temperature, the atmosphere can hold approximately 7% more water vapor. When this warmer, moisture-laden air is involved in weather systems like cyclones, it naturally leads to more intense precipitation.

Cyclones Senyar and Ditwah, while perhaps not as widely known as some of the more devastating cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, provide crucial empirical evidence. The WWA study specifically attributed the observed extreme rainfall associated with these cyclones to human-induced climate change. This attribution science is a relatively newer field that uses sophisticated climate models and statistical analyses to determine whether and to what extent climate change made a particular extreme weather event more likely or more intense. This moves beyond merely observing a correlation to establishing a causal link.

Key stakeholders in this scenario are numerous and interconnected. Firstly, the **scientific community**, represented by groups like WWA and the IPCC, plays a critical role in monitoring, researching, and attributing climate phenomena, providing the foundational knowledge for policy-making. Secondly, **governments** of affected nations, including India, Sri Lanka, and other Southeast Asian countries, are primary stakeholders responsible for disaster preparedness, climate adaptation, and mitigation policies. Their decisions directly impact the resilience of their populations. Thirdly, **local communities and populations** in coastal and low-lying areas are perhaps the most vulnerable stakeholders, bearing the direct brunt of these extreme events through loss of life, livelihoods, and property. Lastly, **international organizations** such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) facilitate global cooperation, set targets, and provide frameworks for climate action and data sharing.

For India, this analysis carries immense significance. India has a long coastline of over 7,500 km, with a significant portion vulnerable to tropical cyclones originating in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. States like Odisha, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Gujarat frequently face the wrath of these storms. Increased rainfall intensity, as highlighted by the WWA study, exacerbates the risks of flash floods, urban flooding, landslides, and damage to agricultural land, infrastructure, and housing. Economically, this translates to billions of rupees in losses annually, impacting GDP growth and diverting resources from development to disaster relief. Socially, it leads to displacement, health crises, food insecurity, and increased poverty, especially for marginalized communities. India's commitment to climate action is reflected in its National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) launched in 2008, which outlines eight national missions focusing on sustainable development while addressing climate change challenges. Furthermore, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), established under the Disaster Management Act, 2005, is crucial for coordinating disaster response and building resilience.

Historically, while cyclones have always been a feature of the Indian subcontinent's weather patterns, the scientific consensus points to an increase in their intensity and a shift in their patterns, partly due to warmer sea surface temperatures. The late 20th and early 21st centuries have seen a rise in the number of 'very severe cyclonic storms'. This trend underscores the urgency of proactive measures rather than reactive responses.

Looking ahead, the future implications are profound. We can anticipate an increased frequency of extreme rainfall events, leading to more severe flooding in both rural and urban areas. This necessitates a radical rethinking of urban planning, infrastructure development (e.g., storm drains, seawalls, resilient housing), and agricultural practices. India's constitutional framework indirectly supports environmental protection through **Article 48A** of the Directive Principles of State Policy, which mandates the state to protect and improve the environment and safeguard forests and wildlife, and **Article 51A(g)**, a Fundamental Duty that enjoins every citizen to protect and improve the natural environment. The Environment (Protection) Act, 1986, further provides the legal framework for environmental protection. Internationally, India's role in climate negotiations, particularly its commitment under the Paris Agreement to reduce emissions intensity and achieve net-zero by 2070, becomes even more critical. The findings like those from WWA strengthen the case for greater climate finance for adaptation and loss and damage in developing countries. Ultimately, understanding and acting upon the link between global warming and intensified rainfall from cyclones is not just an environmental imperative but a developmental and humanitarian one, demanding integrated strategies across governance, economy, and international relations.